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Top prospects
#1
I thought I'd go back and look at Baseball America's top prospect from 2008 to 2013 and see how well they turned out.  I'll separate them into Stars, Players, Meh and Who. (plus N/A and INC for prospects who have little or no ML service time).

2008
Stars: Longoria, Kershaw, Price, Ellsbury, McCutcheon
Players: Bruce, Wieters, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Moustakas, Andrus
Meh: Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Maybin, Frankin Morales, Homer Bailey, Travis Snider
Who?: Brandon Wood, Fernando Martinez

2009
Stars: Price, Bumgarner, Posey, Stanton
Players: Wieters, Hanson, Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Pedro Alvarez, Moustakas, Dexter Fowler, Alcides Escobar
Meh: Rasmus, Snider, Brett Anderson, Maybin, Cahill, Beckham
Who?: Lars Anderson


2010
Stars: Strasburg, Stanton, Posey, Bumgarner
Players: Heyward, Alvarez, Feliz, Carlos Santana, Escobar, Starlin Castro
Meh: Jesus Montero, Matusz, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Dom Brown, Hellickson, Logan Morrison, Aaron Hicks
Who?: Justin Smoak, Martin Perez

2011
Stars: Harper, Trout, Chapman, Machado, Sale
Players: Teheran, Hosmer, Moustakas, Shelby Miller, Freddie Freeman
Meh: Montero, Brown, Hellickson, Will Myers, Ackley, Matt Moore, Michael Pineda
Who?: John Lamb, Mike Montgomery
N/A Taillon

2012
Stars: Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, 
Players: Teheran, Miller, Cole, Cespedes, Mesoraco, d'Arnaud, Rendon
Meh: Moore, Montero, Profar, Trevor Bauer, Taijuan Walker
Who: Tyler Skaggs
N/A or INC: Dylan Bundy, Taillon, Sano

2013
Stars: Jose Fernandez, Correa
Players: Miller, Cole, Bogaerts, Wheeler, Yelich, Baez
Meh: Profar, Myers, Bauer, Walker
Who?: Skaggs
N/A or Inc: Bundy, Oscar Taveras, Sano, Buxton, Zunino, Taillon

I'm sure people will quibble with the designation, but I tried to limit it to what the accomplished in the major leagues.  Obviously, you see some of the biggest names in the game (Kershaw, Harper, Trout, Machado, Posey, Bumgarner) and you see a LOT of the good players.

But I also think you see a surprising number of prospects who turn out to be role players or replacement level starters.

This is the point I'm trying to make about prospects.  Forget the draft.  I'm talking about ranked prospects.  Even the best don't always pan out.
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#2
(05-26-2016, 11:57 PM)hawesg Wrote: I thought I'd go back and look at Baseball America's top prospect from 2008 to 2013 and see how well they turned out.  I'll separate them into Stars, Players, Meh and Who. (plus N/A and INC for prospects who have little or no ML service time).

2008
Stars: Longoria, Kershaw, Price, Ellsbury, McCutcheon
Players: Bruce, Wieters, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Moustakas, Andrus
Meh: Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Maybin, Frankin Morales, Homer Bailey, Travis Snider
Who?: Brandon Wood, Fernando Martinez

2009
Stars: Price, Bumgarner, Posey, Stanton
Players: Wieters, Hanson, Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Pedro Alvarez, Moustakas, Dexter Fowler, Alcides Escobar
Meh: Rasmus, Snider, Brett Anderson, Maybin, Cahill, Beckham
Who?: Lars Anderson


2010
Stars: Strasburg, Stanton, Posey, Bumgarner
Players: Heyward, Alvarez, Feliz, Carlos Santana, Escobar, Starlin Castro
Meh: Jesus Montero, Matusz, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Dom Brown, Hellickson, Logan Morrison, Aaron Hicks
Who?: Justin Smoak, Martin Perez

2011
Stars: Harper, Trout, Chapman, Machado, Sale
Players: Teheran, Hosmer, Moustakas, Shelby Miller, Freddie Freeman
Meh: Montero, Brown, Hellickson, Will Myers, Ackley, Matt Moore, Michael Pineda
Who?: John Lamb, Mike Montgomery
N/A Taillon

2012
Stars: Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, 
Players: Teheran, Miller, Cole, Cespedes, Mesoraco, d'Arnaud, Rendon
Meh: Moore, Montero, Profar, Trevor Bauer, Taijuan Walker
Who: Tyler Skaggs
N/A or INC: Dylan Bundy, Taillon, Sano

2013
Stars: Jose Fernandez, Correa
Players: Miller, Cole, Bogaerts, Wheeler, Yelich, Baez
Meh: Profar, Myers, Bauer, Walker
Who?: Skaggs
N/A or Inc: Bundy, Oscar Taveras, Sano, Buxton, Zunino, Taillon

I'm sure people will quibble with the designation, but I tried to limit it to what the accomplished in the major leagues.  Obviously, you see some of the biggest names in the game (Kershaw, Harper, Trout, Machado, Posey, Bumgarner) and you see a LOT of the good players.

But I also think you see a surprising number of prospects who turn out to be role players or replacement level starters.

This is the point I'm trying to make about prospects.  Forget the draft.  I'm talking about ranked prospects.  Even the best don't always pan out.

Nice list.

At this point an average role player would be an improvement.

That being said Braves have generally had good luck in graduating their top prospects and getting some pretty useful seasons out of them.
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#3
When you look at that list, doesn't the Teix trade still ring out a bit...
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#4
It'd be foolish for anyone to argue that they do all work out but its also ignoring the fact that not all of them have to work out.. Several of these prospects will just be ammo for deals made later and the depth we have prevents a couple of busts from being catastrophic
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#5
About the Teixiera trade, name one star we traded away. Elvis is a overpaid average player. Salty has been a huge disappointment. Feliz and Harrison blew their arms out.
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#6
(05-27-2016, 10:05 AM)BravesBobbleHead Wrote: About the Teixiera trade, name one star we traded away.  Elvis is a overpaid average player.  Salty has been a huge disappointment. Feliz and Harrison blew their arms out.

Apparently you don't think we missed having that talent graduate and provide depth to the big league club for several years?  None of them needs to be a star, although a couple of them had brief stints at the doorstep.

But it's about depth coupled with options to use that depth for other deals on players you can actually control.

We traded a ton of talent to Texas for Teix.  In return we flipped him for Mighty Casey, and our farm was significantly impacted.
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#7
The whole point is that you don't go after one list and rely on one crop to win it all. That's the Royals strategy, and it did work for them, but that strategy has failed many, many times otherwise. The Braves strategy is not that. It's for waves of talent. It's for every top 100 list to have 5+ Braves on it for the next decade as the major league team goes from struggling to consistently winning all while having able replacements waiting in the wings when a player gets expensive or when a guy doesn't hit his expected ceiling.
Minor League Coordinator at TomahawkTake.com

2019, baby!
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#8
Also, Martin Perez after multiple years lost to injury has established himself as a pretty solid #4 starter for the Rangers. He'll not be the guy he was to be before his injuries, but having him in the "Who?" category is underselling.

Likewise, Mike Montgomery recovered from injuries to become a very good reliever, following the Wade Davis path, in Seattle.
Minor League Coordinator at TomahawkTake.com

2019, baby!
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#9
(05-27-2016, 04:18 PM)biggentleben Wrote: Also, Martin Perez after multiple years lost to injury has established himself as a pretty solid #4 starter for the Rangers. He'll not be the guy he was to be before his injuries, but having him in the "Who?" category is underselling.

Likewise, Mike Montgomery recovered from injuries to become a very good reliever, following the Wade Davis path, in Seattle.

Perez jumped out to me too. He's having a really good season for Texas
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#10
I would point out that these are top-20 lists, not top-100.  These are supposed to be the blue chips.

One problem I had with the pitching-first-and-foremost rebuild was that we've always had good success finding guys like Millwood and Horacio Ramirez types who can give you decent production at the back of your rotation.  

It's also interesting to note how routinely the Cardinals rank low on these lists, but they do such a great job with player development that elite talent is trumped by great depth.  And typically, the Braves have been much better at player development on the pitching side.
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