McCarroll21
10-08-2007, 02:34 PM
Will 2008 Mark Tom Glavine's Return To Atlanta?
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
If you are anything like me, when you think of Tom Glavine, you have two clearly separate groups of memories. For me, the memories of him as a Brave outweigh the hatred, for lack of a better word, of his times with the Mets. One has to remember that it was Tom Glavine that brought the Braves their lone World Series title during the magical run of fourteen straight division titles. When I think of Tom Glavine, I like to think of the World Series MVP, the 16 years of service with the Braves, and remembering when he teamed up with Greg Maddux and John Smoltz to give the Braves the most dominate pitching in all of baseball, not the dark days brought on by him pitching for the Braves most heated rival.
Where does that same scenario lie within you? Would you want Tom Glavine back with the Braves or are you one of those that find it hard to forgive him for going to New York?
As you think about that, you probably know by now that Glavine has declined his option that would have allowed him to go back to New York and pitch one more season with the Mets. This is important for the Braves because it sets up a possible Glavine return.
Glavine and the Braves went down this road last off-season and the Braves ran out of time to get a deal done. Due to other payroll obligations, the team was going to have to trade a player, maybe two, to make it possible for them to even offer a contract. They couldn't get that done soon enough, forcing Glavine to honor a handshake agreement to let the Mets know of his plans by the start of Winter Meetings.
When discussing his notion of declining the option, Glavine was quoted as saying, "Atlanta is home. The hardest thing for me in New York is playing and being away from home. I've played in New York for five years now. I'm at the point where my wife and kids are making sacrifices for me."
From the sound of that, he's leaning toward returning to Atlanta. Whether that is upon his retirement or to pitch for the Braves, he clearly wants to be closer to home.
Knowing this, would the Braves want him back?
When John Smoltz was asked about the idea, he responded by saying, "I hope so. He can still pitch. He can still win baseball games."
Chipper Jones had the same type of sentiment: "You bring a guy in who's the quality of [Glavine], and take him away from one of the key [opponents] in our division, yeah, the balance of power could certainly shift in the National League East. He's a guy who's going to go out there for 35-36 starts and give you quality innings."
The two leaders of the clubhouse have gone on record saying they want him back, but what about the man with all the control? When John Schuerholz was asked about the same situation from a year ago, he responded by saying, "Absolutely we [wanted Glavine]. We spent a lot of time trying to create a situation where we could bring Tommy back. That means we were trying to make deals that would free up space on our payroll to fit him in. ... And it just didn't work. It might have in a day or two."
It's clear that the Braves are definitely interested in a Glavine return, but does it make sense from the Braves prospective? Does Glavine give the Braves what they need to be a better team?
The first thing that needs to be understood is that Glavine is no longer the pitcher the Braves had throughout the 90s. Though the Mets had him pretend to be one in 2007, Glavine is also no longer capable of being the ace of a staff. He may be able to pitch like an ace at times, but at this point in his career he is better suited as a pitcher that provides stability to the middle of a rotation. Over his 21 year career, Glavine has not spent a single day on the disabled list and is a near lock to make 30-plus starts. Glavine has made 30 starts in every full season -- those not shortened by strike -- that he has been in the league except 1989, when he made 29. He has gone over 200 innings in every full season since 1990 except for 183 innings in 2003 and 198 innings in 2006.
What does that mean to the Braves? Consider that in 2007 the Braves had two starters pitch 200 innings, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. In the 96 games started by someone other than Smoltz or Hudson, Braves starters averaged just 5.18 innings per start and had a combined 5.56 ERA. In 2007, Tom Glavine averaged 5.89 innings per start with a 4.45 ERA. Prior to the last three starts of the season, in which Glavine struggled mightily, he averaged 6.16 innings per start with a 3.88 ERA.
Glavine made four more starts and pitched 39 more innings than any of the pitchers the Braves used in the 3-5 spots in the rotation in 2007. To illustrate the lack of innings given to the Braves by the 3-5 spots in the rotation, using an average of 5.18 innings per start, the 39 extra innings alone were good enough to cover 7.5 starts made by any pitcher outside of Smoltz and Hudson in 2007.
Beyond giving the Braves more production out of the middle of the rotation, Glavine would bring 20-plus years of experience to help mentor the young left-handed pitchers on the staff -- namely Chuck James and Jo-Jo Reyes, assuming either of them are still with the team in 2008.
Now that the increase in production over the options the Braves currently have at their expense is clear, the next question is if the Braves can afford to bring him in.
By declining his option for 2008, Glavine is to be given $3 million by the Mets. His 2007 contract called for $7.5 million, plus the guaranteed $3 million buyout or a $9 million option for 2008. His option actually increased in value due to innings pitched and was actually worth $13 million for 2008, had he chosen to exercise it. I feel that because he already has $3 million to help off-set any decrease in salary, the Braves would be able to sign Glavine for one year with a contract between $7 and $8 million. That will take him to a total of $10-11 million for 2008, almost equal the pay he would have gotten from the Mets, with the added bonus of being at home and around his family.
Is Tom Glavine, as a 42-year old pitcher, worth $7.5 million per season? Think that Glavine is a virtual lock to give his team 190 innings over at least 30 starts, and to be on the safe side, factor in an ERA between 4.00-4.50.
To put those numbers in perspective, Barry Zito, last year's marquee free agent pitcher, signed a seven-year, $126 million contract ($18 million/year) and finished 2007 with a 4.53 ERA in 196.2 innings. Jason Marquis (4.60 ERA, 191.2 IP) and Adam Eaton (6.29 ERA, 161.2 IP) received contracts that averaged out to $7 million and $8 million per year, respectively.
It's clear that Glavine is needed in Atlanta's rotation in 2008, and not just for a feel good return, either. His stability would take the Braves a step in the right direction of correcting the one lone sore spot from the 2007 Braves, quality starting pitching behind Hudson and Smoltz. It's also clear that Glavine for $8 million per season or less is well worth the investment in this type of free agent market.
Glavine is to have made his decision as to whether he wants to retire or continue pitching, and for which team, by the beginning of November. It's not supposed to be as much of a drawn out process as last winter, so hopefully, the Braves can get a deal done with Glavine soon after his decision is made, allowing Schuerholz to move on and address other areas of the team.
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
If you are anything like me, when you think of Tom Glavine, you have two clearly separate groups of memories. For me, the memories of him as a Brave outweigh the hatred, for lack of a better word, of his times with the Mets. One has to remember that it was Tom Glavine that brought the Braves their lone World Series title during the magical run of fourteen straight division titles. When I think of Tom Glavine, I like to think of the World Series MVP, the 16 years of service with the Braves, and remembering when he teamed up with Greg Maddux and John Smoltz to give the Braves the most dominate pitching in all of baseball, not the dark days brought on by him pitching for the Braves most heated rival.
Where does that same scenario lie within you? Would you want Tom Glavine back with the Braves or are you one of those that find it hard to forgive him for going to New York?
As you think about that, you probably know by now that Glavine has declined his option that would have allowed him to go back to New York and pitch one more season with the Mets. This is important for the Braves because it sets up a possible Glavine return.
Glavine and the Braves went down this road last off-season and the Braves ran out of time to get a deal done. Due to other payroll obligations, the team was going to have to trade a player, maybe two, to make it possible for them to even offer a contract. They couldn't get that done soon enough, forcing Glavine to honor a handshake agreement to let the Mets know of his plans by the start of Winter Meetings.
When discussing his notion of declining the option, Glavine was quoted as saying, "Atlanta is home. The hardest thing for me in New York is playing and being away from home. I've played in New York for five years now. I'm at the point where my wife and kids are making sacrifices for me."
From the sound of that, he's leaning toward returning to Atlanta. Whether that is upon his retirement or to pitch for the Braves, he clearly wants to be closer to home.
Knowing this, would the Braves want him back?
When John Smoltz was asked about the idea, he responded by saying, "I hope so. He can still pitch. He can still win baseball games."
Chipper Jones had the same type of sentiment: "You bring a guy in who's the quality of [Glavine], and take him away from one of the key [opponents] in our division, yeah, the balance of power could certainly shift in the National League East. He's a guy who's going to go out there for 35-36 starts and give you quality innings."
The two leaders of the clubhouse have gone on record saying they want him back, but what about the man with all the control? When John Schuerholz was asked about the same situation from a year ago, he responded by saying, "Absolutely we [wanted Glavine]. We spent a lot of time trying to create a situation where we could bring Tommy back. That means we were trying to make deals that would free up space on our payroll to fit him in. ... And it just didn't work. It might have in a day or two."
It's clear that the Braves are definitely interested in a Glavine return, but does it make sense from the Braves prospective? Does Glavine give the Braves what they need to be a better team?
The first thing that needs to be understood is that Glavine is no longer the pitcher the Braves had throughout the 90s. Though the Mets had him pretend to be one in 2007, Glavine is also no longer capable of being the ace of a staff. He may be able to pitch like an ace at times, but at this point in his career he is better suited as a pitcher that provides stability to the middle of a rotation. Over his 21 year career, Glavine has not spent a single day on the disabled list and is a near lock to make 30-plus starts. Glavine has made 30 starts in every full season -- those not shortened by strike -- that he has been in the league except 1989, when he made 29. He has gone over 200 innings in every full season since 1990 except for 183 innings in 2003 and 198 innings in 2006.
What does that mean to the Braves? Consider that in 2007 the Braves had two starters pitch 200 innings, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. In the 96 games started by someone other than Smoltz or Hudson, Braves starters averaged just 5.18 innings per start and had a combined 5.56 ERA. In 2007, Tom Glavine averaged 5.89 innings per start with a 4.45 ERA. Prior to the last three starts of the season, in which Glavine struggled mightily, he averaged 6.16 innings per start with a 3.88 ERA.
Glavine made four more starts and pitched 39 more innings than any of the pitchers the Braves used in the 3-5 spots in the rotation in 2007. To illustrate the lack of innings given to the Braves by the 3-5 spots in the rotation, using an average of 5.18 innings per start, the 39 extra innings alone were good enough to cover 7.5 starts made by any pitcher outside of Smoltz and Hudson in 2007.
Beyond giving the Braves more production out of the middle of the rotation, Glavine would bring 20-plus years of experience to help mentor the young left-handed pitchers on the staff -- namely Chuck James and Jo-Jo Reyes, assuming either of them are still with the team in 2008.
Now that the increase in production over the options the Braves currently have at their expense is clear, the next question is if the Braves can afford to bring him in.
By declining his option for 2008, Glavine is to be given $3 million by the Mets. His 2007 contract called for $7.5 million, plus the guaranteed $3 million buyout or a $9 million option for 2008. His option actually increased in value due to innings pitched and was actually worth $13 million for 2008, had he chosen to exercise it. I feel that because he already has $3 million to help off-set any decrease in salary, the Braves would be able to sign Glavine for one year with a contract between $7 and $8 million. That will take him to a total of $10-11 million for 2008, almost equal the pay he would have gotten from the Mets, with the added bonus of being at home and around his family.
Is Tom Glavine, as a 42-year old pitcher, worth $7.5 million per season? Think that Glavine is a virtual lock to give his team 190 innings over at least 30 starts, and to be on the safe side, factor in an ERA between 4.00-4.50.
To put those numbers in perspective, Barry Zito, last year's marquee free agent pitcher, signed a seven-year, $126 million contract ($18 million/year) and finished 2007 with a 4.53 ERA in 196.2 innings. Jason Marquis (4.60 ERA, 191.2 IP) and Adam Eaton (6.29 ERA, 161.2 IP) received contracts that averaged out to $7 million and $8 million per year, respectively.
It's clear that Glavine is needed in Atlanta's rotation in 2008, and not just for a feel good return, either. His stability would take the Braves a step in the right direction of correcting the one lone sore spot from the 2007 Braves, quality starting pitching behind Hudson and Smoltz. It's also clear that Glavine for $8 million per season or less is well worth the investment in this type of free agent market.
Glavine is to have made his decision as to whether he wants to retire or continue pitching, and for which team, by the beginning of November. It's not supposed to be as much of a drawn out process as last winter, so hopefully, the Braves can get a deal done with Glavine soon after his decision is made, allowing Schuerholz to move on and address other areas of the team.