STATS

[MPH]

If you like analyzing baseball statistics, are into sabremetrics, have some expertise you want to share, or just want to learn more about baseball numbers, this is the place to do it.

If you think a particular stat is more useful than others, tell us all about it.
If you find a new or unusual stat, share it with the rest of us.
If you have a question about a stat or a definition, post it here and somebody will answer you.As we move into the off-season, and switch from watching games to considering trades and FA acquisitions, this is a good time to brush up on our stats so our posts will make sense to each other.

Everyone here is familiar with BA, RBI's, OBP, Slg, OPS, ERA, QS, and other everyday stats. but there are many others - some quite arcane - that are useful sometimes.

I'm sure many of you have insights and knowledge that will be useful to everybody, and some others are interested in learning more, so please share what you know and ask whatever questions you have.

VORP, WARP, WS, and WPA are four "all-in" performance measures for baseball players. Each tries to measure players' overall contibution to helping his team win games, unlike most everyday stats that measure only one aspect of a player's performance. Definitions of VORP and WARP can be found at baseballprospectus.com, WS (Win Shares) is at hardballtimes.com, and a primer on WPA is here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/. Another one on WPA and Clutch WPA for pitchers and position players is here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-wpa-can-tell-us-about-players1/. The best place to find WPA stats is http://www.fangraphs.com/.

[ifthenwouldi]

I'm curious what stats some of you value. I've read a good deal of information about these stats, but haven't really decided whether VORP & Co. are really that much better than OPS to bother with. What do you guys think?

Also, what's a stat novice like myself to do with pitching? Is ERA fairly reliable over the course of ~25-30 starts? What else should I look at?

[absintheofmalaise]

You should look at ERA+, WHIP, K/BB ratio, GB/FB ratio, K rate.

[Just0s13]

I asked a question around the beginning of the season who you'd want up at the dish with 2 outs down a run. ( I said McCann or Renteria) Somebody responded with a whole bunch of situational stats and whathaveyou. Does anybody know a website that caluclates something like 7-9 inning batting average and those kinds of things. I argued with someone that Renteria is in the top-10, maybe top-5 for clutch hitters in the game and I need some kind of supporting stats to back me up. Thanks a lot. Go Braves!

[BGarrett7]

Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/)

The thread in question: Here (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3392).
The post in question: Here (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=41155&postcount=21).

[milbraves]

I asked a question around the beginning of the season who you'd want up at the dish with 2 outs down a run. ( I said McCann or Renteria) Somebody responded with a whole bunch of situational stats and whathaveyou. Does anybody know a website that caluclates something like 7-9 inning batting average and those kinds of things. I argued with someone that Renteria is in the top-10, maybe top-5 for clutch hitters in the game and I need some kind of supporting stats to back me up. Thanks a lot. Go Braves!

You know, alot of people believe there is no such thing as a "clutch hitter" and have plenty of evidence to back their claims. Those that are considered "clutch hitters" are simply the best hitters in the game, thus it stands to reason that they produce more in said "clutch" situations. It's because they produce more in all situations. Look at "MR CLUTCH" ortiz' clutch stats over the years and you find that some years he was below the league average in clutch performance and in some years he was above. "Clutch play" is really just a matter of perception.

To answer the Renty/Mac question, i'd rather have Renty up because he is more likely to get a hit, regardless of the situation.

[brnt247]

Clutch hitters are usually determined by visual evidence rather than statistical.

[absintheofmalaise]

You know, alot of people believe there is no such thing as a "clutch hitter" and have plenty of evidence to back their claims. Those that are considered "clutch hitters" are simply the best hitters in the game, thus it stands to reason that they produce more in said "clutch" situations. It's because they produce more in all situations. Look at "MR CLUTCH" ortiz' clutch stats over the years and you find that some years he was below the league average in clutch performance and in some years he was above. "Clutch play" is really just a matter of perception.

To answer the Renty/Mac question, i'd rather have Renty up because he is more likely to get a hit, regardless of the situation.
It's really helpful to actually post the stats you're talking about so that we can all make an informed judgment about your post.
BTW, almost everyone these days does admit that there is clutch hitting, even Bill James who used to say there was no such thing as clutch hitting. Here is what he said in 2005 http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=27467 What they also admit is that there isn't a way to accurately predict clutch hitting. You also have to decide how you define clutch hitting. Here is a good article on clutch hitting from retrosheet. http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/clutch_art.htm
One of the best measures of how a player did in a clutch situation is on http://www.fangraphs.com/

[ifthenwouldi]

You should look at ERA+, WHIP, K/BB ratio, GB/FB ratio, K rate.

Any singular stat that lumps those together with a nice, pink ribbon on top?

[absintheofmalaise]

Any singular stat that lumps those together with a nice, pink ribbon on top?
Not that I know of.ERA+ does use park factors in it's calculations so it's good for comparing pitchers from differnt eras and leagues. 100 is average. The more over 100 a pitcher is the better.

[milbraves]

It's really helpful to actually post the stats you're talking about so that we can all make an informed judgment about your post.
BTW, almost everyone these days does admit that there is clutch hitting, even Bill James who used to say there was no such thing as clutch hitting. Here is what he said in 2005 http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=27467 What they also admit is that there isn't a way to accurately predict clutch hitting. You also have to decide how you define clutch hitting. Here is a good article on clutch hitting from retrosheet. http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/clutch_art.htm

I said: "Clutch play" is really just a matter of perception
You said: there isn't a way to accurately predict clutch hitting, you also have to decide how you define clutch hitting.

In order to accept the clutch hitting phenomenon, one must realize there is no way to quantify it or to prove it exists. To believe in something with no proof of its existence is called faith, which has no place in logic or statistical analysis.

A quote from the article you linked to:

If it exists, clutchness probably creates only a few extra hits for a batter over the course of a season, despite announcers who claim to see it in every game.

So James's old view might have had the rare distinction of being wrong and still being closer to the truth than the other side's argument.

So, "almost everyone" believes it exists. I do. I know when Papi hits a walk-off, i call it a clutch hit. What I said was there's no such thing as a clutch hitter, which is to say a batter that can reliably perform better in "clutch" situations than "everyday" scenarios.

I'll put together a stat analysis for you. Then you can make all the "informed judgements" you want about what i have to say.

[absintheofmalaise]

This is one of the best books I've read on stats, percentages, smart baseball etc. http://www.insidethebook.com/ The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball.
Tom Tnago also has an excellent website. http://www.tangotiger.net/

[milbraves]

Absinthe- follow this link.... Nate Silver's analysis of "Clutch Hitting"<?A>
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/ortiz/060405)Lemme know what you think.

Of all the Clutch hitting analyses I've come across, to me this is the best, most logical, and most based in genuine statistical analysis. And Nate Silver's reputation is nothing short of Sterling. (PUN INTENDED!)

[absintheofmalaise]

That's a good article. I'm surrounded by many sabermetric guys on a Sox board I'm on. They pretty much all agree that clutch does exist.

[milbraves]

That's a good article. I'm surrounded by many sabermetric guys on a Sox board I'm on. They pretty much all agree that clutch does exist.

Of course they do. They're Sox fans.

[milbraves]

Clutch hitting is like the Santa Claus of baseball analysis. Many say it doesn't exist, you can't prove it exists, so it doesn't. On Christmas morning, the other side says "then where did all these presents come from?" (a very abstract metaphor, i know)

This debate will rage on as long as baseball does and certainly will not be settled once and for all on this message board.

I will conclude with two fitting quotes from our Secretary of Defense:
-The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
-There are known knowns, there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns, that is to say there are things we don't know. But there are also unkown unkowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.

-Donald Rumsfeld
(my favorite quote ever)

[MPH]

... follow this link.... Nate Silver's analysis of "Clutch Hitting"<?A>
(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/ortiz/060405)Lemme know what you think.

That's a good article, milbraves. Silver's point is that clutch hitting probably does exist to some extent but it's hard to quantify.

Some of his other comments are also worth repeating, as they apply to many other stats:

• With the bases empty, a walk is every bit as good as a single. This is not the case with runners on base.
• In a tie game in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on third base, a single is every bit as good as a home run.
• If the home team is batting in the bottom of the ninth down by two runs with nobody on, a walk is virtually as good as a home run.
• With a runner on first base and less than two outs, a strikeout is preferable to a groundout.

[Rick]

I thought we had a good measure for clutch hitting - a player's batting average in the 7th inning or later , up or down by one or two runs . I think Renteria was leading the league in this stat in July or August . And the good news if we decide to trade him is that Escobar seems to have the same talent .

[MPH]

I thought we had a good measure for clutch hitting - a player's batting average in the 7th inning or later , up or down by one or two runs ... .
That is a good measure, Rick, just not a precise one.

There are two basic flaws: first, late & close base hits matter a lot more when there is a runner on base; and second, most players hit for almost the same BA in late & close situations as they do the rest of the time.

The Renteria example is a case in point - he was near the top of the league in overall BA at the same time he was near the lead in late & close BA. His overall BA is .330 and after the 6th inning it's .348 - that seems like "evidence" of clutch hitting on the surface, but he only hits .281 with runners in scoring position and 2 out, so that undercuts his "clutch" rep pretty significantly.

That's no knock on Renteria, he's one of my favorite Braves, but it does show how difficult it is to measure clutchiness in a way that takes all pertinent factors into account.

[Nasadega]

One stat I've always wondered about is CERA (catcher's ERA). That stat is almost unknown, I've searched some articles about it but never found anyhting. I'd like to read some stuff about different and most important factor in CERA. Basically is it more the catcher or the rotation that makes the CERA.

[MPH]

You're right, CERA is a very interesting stat and there is not much info on it. The way I've seen it used is to compare two catchers on the same team like McCann and Salty because it is really the ERA of the team's pitchers when a certain catcher is in the game.

Does anybody know where to find normalized or league-averaged CERA rankings that can be used to compare catchers on different teams? Or maybe that wouldn't make sense if the reason the team has a high ERA is because the catcher isn't very good. CERA is definitely worth learning more about, though.

[McCarroll21]

Does anybody know where to find normalized or league-averaged CERA rankings that can be used to compare catchers on different teams?A league average of catcher's ERA would be the same as the league average for pitcher's ERA.

You would just have to get the other catcher's ERA's (you can get them on baseball-reference, pitcher's splits) and then put it in a formula where average is equal to 100.

Just like figuring ERA+ for a pitcher, except it would be for while that catcher is catching.

[MPH]

Right, but would normalizing the teams ERA to league-average really make sense? Sure it would neutralize the quality of the pitchers, but it would also neutralize the quality of the catcher, right?

[MPH]

After searching diligently for a meaningful way to compare catchers by using some variant of CERA I came up empty. Aside from some Michael Barrett haters, the stat just isn't used that much.

The most intelligent explanation I found for the non-use of CERA is the following quote from Bill James, the granddaddy of sabermetricians:

"It is my opinion that it is impossible to evaluate a catcher’s defensive contribution by a comparison based on catcher’s ERAs.

"Many of the pitcher/catcher combinations which have been studied to reach this conclusion worked together for 40 or 50 innings. ERAs in less than 100 innings pitched have immense instability due to randomness. Further, since the catcher’s defensive skill is only one of many, many factors in the prevention of runs, the randomness occurs on a scale which must be 20 times larger than the scale on which the catcher’s ERA contribution must be measured—even if you assume that the catcher’s defensive contribution is very large.

"Obviously, if a catcher makes a defensive contribution, this must result in a lower ERA for his pitchers. It seems, intuitively, that this difference would have to be visible in the stats at least at some level, that there would at least have to be some measurable consistency in the data. That intuitive sense is what misled me, on this issue, for 25 years. But, in fact, it doesn’t. There is so much instability in the data that the catcher’s defensive contribution simply cannot be isolated in this form."
The quote is from a long article that discusses many other issues pertinent to this thread, and it's a pretty good read. http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

[cjones1999]

Left on base percentage (LOB%). And did you know Chuck James leads the majors in LOB%? Prolly not but he is carrying a lofty 82.2 LOB%.

It strikes me as interesting, as it's not really used every day.

[milbraves]

One stat I've always wondered about is CERA (catcher's ERA). That stat is almost unknown, I've searched some articles about it but never found anyhting. I'd like to read some stuff about different and most important factor in CERA. Basically is it more the catcher or the rotation that makes the CERA.

Here (http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&pg=PA104&lpg=PA104&dq=is+mike+matheny+a+catching+genius&source=web&ots=Jzz81d5Dba&sig=3HpsgNW99u5s7CE1F-f2mR6Sb38) is a very informative article covering all the topics you mentioned. Enjoy!

Crap. It's just a preview, the last two pages are missing.
I'm sure you can find them elsewhere out there on them internets.

[milbraves]

Does LOB% factor in how many runs a pitcher let score in an inning? can someone let up ten runs and as leave with no one on base and get a LOB% of 100? If that's the case, I don't see the point.

It doesn't seem like a really useful stat to me, seeing as how Chuck James is getting high marks this season.

[JCStone57]

Does LOB% factor in how many runs a pitcher let score in an inning? can someone let up ten runs and as leave with no one on base and get a LOB% of 100? If that's the case, I don't see the point.

It doesn't seem like a really useful stat to me, seeing as how Chuck James is getting high marks this season.

Touche

[MPH]

Left on base percentage (LOB%). And did you know Chuck James leads the majors in LOB%? Prolly not but he is carrying a lofty 82.2 LOB%.

It strikes me as interesting, as it's not really used every day.
The formula for pitchers LOB% at Hardball Times is "(H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)). Essentially, it's the number of baserunners who didn't score divided by the total number of baserunners (except those who scored on a home run). We exclude home runs from the base because we want to measure things a pitcher is less likely to control."

[MPH]

Does LOB% factor in how many runs a pitcher let score in an inning?
LOL ... think that through a little, milbraves.

Obviously the runners that are not LOB are the runners who scored. If a pitcher let all the runners score his LOB% would be 0, not 100.

[BGarrett7]

Left on base percentage (LOB%). And did you know Chuck James leads the majors in LOB%? Prolly not but he is carrying a lofty 82.2 LOB%.

It strikes me as interesting, as it's not really used every day.An absolutely useless stat.

What does it serve to accomplish?

So, Chuck is stranding over 80% of the runners he has allowed on base this season? Great.

The problem? He's got a WHIP of 1.43 with 29 HR allowed on the season. So he is allowing an insane amount of baserunners to begin with, and then allowing a lot of them to come around to score on the longball.

Let's take a hypothetical example to debunk this stat:

Let's say a Pitcher A and Pitcher B both work 100 innings on the season.

Pitcher A has a LOB% of 82.95%.
Pitcher B has a LOB% of 83.90%.

Their stat lines?

Pitcher A: 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 5 HR allowed
Pitcher B: 5.49 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 30 HR allowed

Useless.

[milbraves]

Does LOB% factor in how many runs a pitcher let score in an inning?

Did you notice the question mark at the end??? That means that i don't know and that's why i'm asking. Discussion boards are for discussion, not for innane arguments over pointless details.

And seriously, any stat that indicates Chuck James is having a stellar year seems like bullshit to me. (see BGarret's post above)

[cjones1999]

Did I say LOB% was useful? no. Did I say it was interesting to see Chuck leading it? to me, yes.

[BGarrett7]

Did I say LOB% was useful? no. Did I say it was interesting to see Chuck leading it? to me, yes.Why should such a pointless stat even be interesting?

You could be Jo-Jo Reyes or Brandon Webb and lead the league in the stat.

Big deal.

[MPH]

Why should such a pointless stat even be interesting?

You could be Jo-Jo Reyes or Brandon Webb and lead the league in the stat.

Big deal.
Pitcher's LOB percentage is neither interesting nor uninteresting in and of itself. It just answers the question, "What percentage of baserunners are left on base?" It's just a number, and inferences can be drawn from it (or not) just like any other number.

It's basically the flip side of offensive LOB, an indication of batting efficiency. When the Braves get men on base and fail to score, that's bad. When the other team gets men on base and fails to score, that's good. Pitcher's LOB and offensive LOB just measure those two things.

So why is James leading the league in pitcher's LOB%? What does it mean that the baserunners he allows are less likely to score than baserunners allowed by any other pitcher in the league? We already know it doesn't mean he's the best overall pitcher in the league. It only means that men on base are less likely to score when he is pitching. Part of the reason is his home run rate, over 4 times that of Jake Peavy, number 3 in LOB%. Home runs don't leave any runners on base.

Wandy Rodriguez is last in the league in pitchers' LOB%. A runner on base when Wandy is pitching scores a run 34.3% of the time. A man on base only scores 18.5% of the time against James.

Comparing Chuck James to Wandy Rodriguez seems like a dubious exercise, but here are their numbers anyway:

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BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=52>WHIP</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=54>BABIP</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=56>LOB%</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=52>FIP</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=55>WPA</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; 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BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>150.2</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.73</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="0.27200000000000002">0.272</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.43</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="0.28799999999999998">0.288</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>81.5</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>5.46</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0.78</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Rodriguez</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>8</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>13</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4.65</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>28</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>164.2</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1,04</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0.260</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.33</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="0.311">0.311</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>65.7</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4.03</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>-0.50</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Interesting? Nah, not to everybody ... Totally pointless? No, just stats: numbers that answer questions. If the question is asked, then the answer must be interesting to somebody.

[MPH]

An absolutely useless stat. What does it serve to accomplish? Let's take a hypothetical example to debunk this stat:


Let's say a Pitcher A and Pitcher B both work 100 innings on the season.
Pitcher A has a LOB% of 82.95%.
Pitcher B has a LOB% of 83.90%.

Their stat lines?
Pitcher A: 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 5 HR allowed
Pitcher B: 5.49 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 30 HR allowedUseless.
A stat is just a number. There's nothing to "debunk" about a stat unless it is used to support a flawed conclusion. I don't want this to turn into the "LOB% Thread," but just to debunk your debunking, consider the following:


As in your example, Pitchers C and D each have 100 IP.
Pitcher C has a LOB% of 78%
Pitcher D has a LOB% of 72%Their stat lines?
Pitcher C: 2.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10 HR allowed
Pitcher D: 2.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10 HR allowedThe difference?
Pitcher C has a higher LOB%. Pitcher C strands 7 more men on base than Pitcher D over 100 innings, saving 7 runs. If that 100 innings represents 14 or 15 starts, that 7-run difference probably means a few wins.

Of course C's higher LOB% doesn't necessarily mean he's the superior pitcher, but in this example it does mean that he gives up fewer runs and his team probably wins more games.

Interesting.


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 154pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=206 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 102pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4973" width=136><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" span=2 width=35><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 102pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=136 height=17>100 IP, 1.25 WHIP</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=35>C</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=35>D</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>HR</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>10</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>10</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Non-HR Hits + Walks</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>115</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>115</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Base Runners Scored</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num x:fmla="=+B3*0.12">13.8</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num x:fmla="=115*0.18">20.7</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Total Runs</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>23.8</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>30.7</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>ERA</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num x:fmla="=+B5*0.9">.214</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num x:fmla="=+C5*0.9">.276</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[vnodnarb]

I kind of see that stat as being like WHIP, both are stats that by themselves mean very little. ERA+ is much more important regardless of LOB% or WHIP. But WHIP, I believe is a good indicator of future performance, because the law of averages eventually works its way out. As is the same with LOB%, a guy like Jorge Sosa in 2005 I'm sure had a great one, but I can't imagine anyone can keep up a great LOB% over there career. Hopefully that made sense.

[MPH]

I kind of see that stat as being like WHIP, both are stats that by themselves mean very little. ERA+ is much more important regardless of LOB% or WHIP. But WHIP, I believe is a good indicator of future performance, because the law of averages eventually works its way out. As is the same with LOB%, a guy like Jorge Sosa in 2005 I'm sure had a great one, but I can't imagine anyone can keep up a great LOB% over there career. Hopefully that made sense.
Perfect sense!

That's why some of the more obscure stats are obscure - they can be useful in combination with other things, but have little or no predictive value on their own.

[MPH]

"Matt Diaz, an excellent, young hitter."

He's 29 and has yet to be an everyday player... Young, he ain't.
I like Diaz, and he's done well for the Braves, but his .381 BABIP makes me think he's over-achieving. Anything over .300 is generally considered "luck," and the randomness of BABIP worries me if we depend on him to be our starting full-time LF next season.

[gobravez]

I like Diaz, and he's done well for the Braves, but his .381 BABIP makes me think he's over-achieving. Anything over .300 is generally considered "luck," and the randomness of BABIP worries me if we depend on him to be our starting full-time LF next season.

what is BABIP?

[GrandMasterB]

what is BABIP?

Batting Average on Balls In Play

(H - HR)/(AB - HR - SO)

[GrandMasterB]

I like Diaz, and he's done well for the Braves, but his .381 BABIP makes me think he's over-achieving. Anything over .300 is generally considered "luck," and the randomness of BABIP worries me if we depend on him to be our starting full-time LF next season.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't BABIP considered a "luck" stat for pitchers more so than for hitters?

[gobravez]

Batting Average on Balls In Play

(H - HR)/(AB - HR - SO)

I don't understand how that proves anything though? Is it like how many balls fall that are put in play? But isnt this system flawed if there is a hitter that doesnt hit for much power and never strikes out?

[MPH]

what is BABIP?
Batting average on balls in play. The league average is .290 - .300, and it's a measure of how many batted balls result in hits. For both pitchers and hitters it has been shown to be a non-predictive, non-repeatable stat that represents the increment of BA and BAA attributable to luck.

[Nasadega]

I like Diaz, and he's done well for the Braves, but his .381 BABIP makes me think he's over-achieving. Anything over .300 is generally considered "luck," and the randomness of BABIP worries me if we depend on him to be our starting full-time LF next season.

His babip has never been lower than .329 since 2005. He's either lucky or good enough to effect his own babip (if that's possible)

anyway, posting this message to say I'm leaving for a week of holidays, I might post here to see how the team is doing. See yall folks

[MPH]

I don't understand how that proves anything though? Is it like how many balls fall that are put in play? But isnt this system flawed if there is a hitter that doesnt hit for much power and never strikes out?
It doesn't prove anything all by itself. It does, however, provide one possible explanation for a guy coming out of nowhere at age 29 to put up some remarkable numbers for a year or two, then fading into oblivion. Not saying that's the case with Diaz, but it's something to keep in mind.

[gobravez]

It doesn't prove anything all by itself. It does, however, provide one possible explanation for a guy coming out of nowhere at age 29 to put up some remarkable numbers for a year or two, then fading into oblivion. Not saying that's the case with Diaz, but it's something to keep in mind.


But, if you look at diaz numbers in the minors then he hasnt exactly came out of nowhere. Plus he used to have depth perception problems with his eyes which had to have so sort of affect on him too. I don't think he is being lucky... now willie harris on the other hand...

[Nasadega]

Right, there are many factors to consider. Just pointing out that luck is one of them, and his high BA might be partly attributable to an unsustainable run of good luck. Or maybe not ...

I think babip has its limit. See Ichiro, .401 babip in 2004, .390 this year, yet I don't think he's lucky, he just slaps the ball everywhere and well.

[MPH]

I think babip has its limit. See Ichiro, .401 babip in 2004, .390 this year, yet I don't think he's lucky, he just slaps the ball everywhere and well.
Yeah, every stat has it's limitations, and I don't want to make a big deal out of BABIP. Your selective use of stats proves nothing, though. Take a look at the years you left out for Ichiro, and you will see both the randomness in his BABIP and it's effect on BA.

[GrandMasterB]

Yeah, every stat has it's limitations, and I don't want to make a big deal out of BABIP. Your selective use of stats proves nothing, though. Take a look at the years you left out for Ichiro, and you will see both the randomness in his BABIP and it's effect on BA.

You are correct. His BA has been anywhere from .303 to .372, while his BABIP has been from .319 to .401.

2001: BABIP - .371, BA - .350, difference of .021
2002: BABIP - .347, BA - .321, difference of .026
2003: BABIP - .333, BA - .312, difference of .021
2004: BABIP - .401, BA - .372, difference of .029
2005: BABIP - .319, BA - .303, difference of .016
2006: BABIP - .350, BA - .322, difference of .028
2007: BABIP - .389, BA - .353, difference of .036*

*Through 9/20