How bad do the Braves miss Ramirez?

[Chopaholic]

Ha, Ok before you guys automatically give me negative Rep points for that statement alone, look at the numbers.

Disclaimer:
Trust me, I know how great our bullpen has been this year and how horrible Ramirez and bullpen were for our team last year.

But pitchers sometimes do get better from year to year for different reasons.

Most Obvious and Glaring Stat.
2007 Braves 5th starter: 0-5 with a 9.30 ERA

Ramirez Career stats:
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>SEASON</TD><TD align=left width="5%">TEAM</TD><TD width="5%">G</TD><TD width="5%">GS</TD><TD width="5%">CG</TD><TD width="5%">SHO</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="5%">HR</TD><TD width="5%">BB</TD><TD width="5%">SO</TD><TD width="5%">W</TD><TD width="5%">L</TD><TD width="5%">SV</TD><TD width="5%">HLD</TD><TD width="5%">BLSV</TD><TD width="5%">ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>2003</TD><TD align=left>Atl</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>182.1</TD><TD>181</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>12</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>4.00</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>2004</TD><TD align=left>Atl</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>60.1</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>2</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>2.39</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>2005</TD><TD align=left>Atl</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>202.1</TD><TD>214</TD><TD>108</TD><TD>104</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>67</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>11</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>4.63</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>2006</TD><TD align=left>Atl</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.1</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>5</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>4.48</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>2007</TD><TD align=left>Sea</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>32.1</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>6.40</TD></TR><TR class="evenrow bi" align=right><TD align=left>Total</TD><TD align=left>--</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>553.2</TD><TD>579</TD><TD>292</TD><TD>262</TD><TD>67</TD><TD>215</TD><TD>259</TD><TD>33</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>4.26</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Possible Trend: Every other season Ramirez puts together decent enough numbers to be a #5 starter. His numbers for 2007 look horrible but check his home starts at Safeco:
2-0 with 1.94 ERA in 2 GS.

Do not get me wrong Soriano is great, and now as the closer he will be even more valuable. But how many innings will he pitch this year? He has never pitched more than 60 innings in one season.

So in that trade we gave up possibly over 130 IP at an ERA around 4.5
As bad as 4.5 ERA sounds it is much better than the 9+ we have hung over our 5 slot right now. We could have hung around in those games and maybe won a few.

OK so here is our bullpen's ERA with and without Soriano this year.
W/O: 96.2 IP 44 ER = 4.11
W/: 115 IP 50 ER = 3.91
I do understand that someone would have had to pitch those 18.1 innings Soriano has, but lets just assume it would be the same ERA referenced. This brings the questions: Is .2 drop in your bullpens ERA worth giving up 130+ innings pitched when you have question marks at the #5 spot, even with Hampton in the rotation.

I still think it was a good trade for the Braves (maybe not the steal that everyone else seems to think), but I was bored at work. Next maybe I will try to defend Jorge Sosa. J/K.

[Nasadega]

First of all, HoRacio's contract value is twice Soriano's for 2007 (2.6M vs 1.2M)
Then explain me how do you get a 4ERA from Soriano's replacement when all the relievers we called up this season sucked?

[Chopaholic]

Contract issue aside. Not a factor in my analysis, although I did think about it.

As for the ERA. I acknowledged this possible discrepancy in my first post. This 4.11 number takes into account all of the "sucky" relievers we have called up. Yeah the next guy on the list who would be on the roster without Soriano may "suck" worse, but would they effect that number significantly? Just compare Soriano's effect with 18.1 innings and his 2.95 ERA, being a difference of .2 overall.

The main point of the post is the difference between the number of innings lost with HR compared to the amt of innings RS will pitch, the impact he will have on our Bullpens stats and the problem with our 5th starter.

[KB 34]

The problem with Ramirez was that he was either constantly inconsistent or injured. Getting rid of him was a necessity because he costs too much for what he brings to his team. Getting Soriano was just incredible.

[vnodnarb]

i dont think you can measure Soriano's value by his ERA because thats inflated due to two bad outings when we had a huge lead, he hasn't given up a run in a close game yet and is 5/5 in saves, this trade was a ripoff in my opinion and many others

would i take back HoRam for free? sure, but reversing this trade would be moronic

[cklennon]

Ramirez was always pretty good at home for the Braves too, that's nothing new. He hasn't improved at all since he left in my opinion. His ERA is deflated from two starts at the beginning of the season, at home against Texas, when he went 6 innings and gave up 1 run, and at home against KCR(!) when he went 6.1 and gave up 1.

Other than those two starts, he has had these outings:
@LAA 4IP 6ER 7H 6BB 1K
@BOS 4IP 7ER 11H 3BB 4K
@DET 5.2IP 7ER 11H 0BB 0K

Yeah he pitches OK at home, but so far he's only pitched to shitty teams at home. He's horrendous on the road, especially when he's pitching good teams like BOS and LAA and decent teams like DET. I don't miss him. I'd rather Lerew or Davies get out there and gain experience.

[Chopaholic]

He pitched last night to the Yankees. Got the decision. Yankees may be "shitty", but their offense is still pretty good.

He went 6.1I 5H 1ER 1BB 1K

[Adam's Army]

HoRam might MIGHT be an ok 5th starter but i dont think we miss him much. weve got Horacio equvilants or better waiting to come up and Soriano has been great.

[Chopaholic]

HoRam might MIGHT be an ok 5th starter but i dont think we miss him much. weve got Horacio equvilants or better waiting to come up and Soriano has been great.


Those are BIG mights, lol.

[C-Dawg]

I see what you're saying, but the frustration of the unreliable, on-again-off-again HoRam is not worth whatever decent numbers he puts up from time to time.

[McCarroll21]

I really wanted to respond to this, but there was no need to. That's how much I miss him.

Horacio sucks. Before his start yesterday, he had a 7.62 ERA. His first start and last start are good ones, both 6 IP with 1 ER, though he did give up 5 runs in his first game.

So after getting off to a solid start, having a 1.50 ERA through his first start, he pitched well enough to drive his ERA up to 7.62 over his next four starts before bringing it back down to 6.40 in his last start on Sunday.

Basically, he still sucks and always will suck. Sure, he may have one or two good ones every 6 starts or so, but no thanks. I'll gladly take Soriano, there's no telling what our team's record would be right now without Soriano. All of ... and I mean ALL of ... Soriano's runs have been given up with the score being 4+ runs difference. This is a case where his ERA doesn't work for you. His ERA is the result of pitching in situations that he shouldn't be in just to get work, and none of those have cost us any games.

Would I rather have a pitcher making starts and putting us behind the eight ball just like Redman did in exchange for the man who hasn't allowed a run in a close game yet this season? No.

[oyhstah crachah]

Would I rather have a pitcher making starts and putting us behind the eight ball just like Redman did in exchange for the man who hasn't allowed a run in a close game yet this season? No.
I think you just about hit it right on... Now I'm a go grab that free dinner at Chili's that Mac just won me. Oh, damn... nvm :D

[lmartin6]

I was gonna say pretty much something along the same lines as Mc. Sure, we're having struggles at #5 right now (that's why it's a #5, they obviously aren't great), but our struggles would be basically the same if he were our fifth starter. We gave up someone who would never be any more than a 5 for us to get the best pitcher our pen has seen in a very long time. That's a no-brainer. If we don't make that trade and keep Horacio for our 5, then we still have a situation where every fifth day we're still allowing alot of runs, but don't have somebody to nail things down on the other 4 days. Call me crazy, but I'll take a sure thing every 4 out 5 games a hell of a lot more than I will a "this guy MIGHT have an ok game tonight" every 1 out of 5 games. To me, this was by far one of JS better deals, ever.

[DanielW4444]

Had it been first 2 years Horacio that looked like a pitcher that could be something, yes(but still Soriano >>>>>>>>> HoRam)
The Human Coors Field Simulator that he turned out to be, NO WAY.

[Chopaholic]

We gave up someone who would never be any more than a 5 for us to get the best pitcher our pen has seen in a very long time.

John Smoltz? Has not been that long.

But I agree with everything else.

[lmartin6]

John Smoltz? Has not been that long.

But I agree with everything else.

ok, i'll give you that. But, at the same time I can argue the point that given time, Soriano has every bit the amount of talent/ability to surpass what Smoltz did for us in the pen. Don't get me wrong, I get your point exactly, and partially agree...Smoltz would've been the best reliever in the game for those 3 years had it not been for a guy named Gagne.

So...allow me to say this. We traded nothing more than a number 5 guy for the best reliever we've seen in a very long time besides Smoltz, and probably will see in a long time to come

[KB 34]

Oh, and for those of you who think the Braves would have kept Horacio if the Soriano trade hadn't gone through, guess again. At $2.8 million the Braves really couldn't afford to keep Horacio and the Mariners are idiots for not keeping Soriano and simply signing Horacio as a FA for $3.3 million.

[AtlFan7]

Sure, I miss him to a certain extent, but not enough to undo the deal which sent Soriano our way. :D

The person I miss the most is Kevin Millwood. He was one of my favorites. J.S. should've had his head examined for trading a young Kevin Millwood in order to keep an aging Greg Maddux. Not to mention the fact that Millwood had better postseason numbers than Greg. I'd sure like to have Millwood now, as opposed to some of the starting pitchers we've seen the past few years, like Paul Byrd, Mike Hampton or John Thomson.

[McCarroll21]

It wasn't JS choice to trade Millwood to keep an aging Maddux.

[GrandMasterB]

Sure, I miss him to a certain extent, but not enough to undo the deal which sent Soriano our way. :D

The person I miss the most is Kevin Millwood. He was one of my favorites. J.S. should've had his head examined for trading a young Kevin Millwood in order to keep an aging Greg Maddux. Not to mention the fact that Millwood had better postseason numbers than Greg. I'd sure like to have Millwood now, as opposed to some of the starting pitchers we've seen the past few years, like Paul Byrd, Mike Hampton or John Thomson.

At the time, that was a good trade for us. It got us a good young catcher by the name of Johnny Estrada, who took over for Javy the next year. Only had him for a couple years, but he was an all-star while he was in Atlanta.

[AtlFan7]

It wasn't JS choice to trade Millwood to keep an aging Maddux.

Whose was it then?

If I recall correctly, it was J.S. who offered salary arbitration to Maddux. And when Maddux accepted the offer, unexpectedly, it neccessitated the trade of Kevin Millwood to a division rival to stay under budget. He should've let Maddux walk. And believe me, I like Maddux.

[AtlFan7]

At the time, that was a good trade for us. It got us a good young catcher by the name of Johnny Estrada, who took over for Javy the next year. Only had him for a couple years, but he was an all-star while he was in Atlanta.

True, but I still wish we had kept Millwood, especially when you consider how hard good starting pitching is to come by these days. I think we could've survived without Estrada for couple of years with McCann and Salty coming up through the pipeline. And yes, it was a pleasure watching Estrada during his stay with Atlanta, but if J.S could do it all over again, he probably would do things differently.

[McCarroll21]

Whose was it then?
Scott Boras.

[KB 34]

I'm going to explain my anti-JS position on the Millwood trade to give a slightly different take on the story. We now go back in time. Glavine and Maddux are both FA and JS is trying to build a strong staff with 2 of his best starters on the open market. Glavine signs with the Mets and JS is really scared. Why? JS looks at the pitching staff and sees no reliable lefty to replace Glavine. Damian Moss is a headcase held together by Glavine and Horacio Ramirez is the only other viable option. As a way of assuring the Braves will have a reliable lefty, JS sets up the Hampton deal. Despite Selig jumping in and making the Braves more of Hampton's contract, JS pulls the trigger and pro-rates Hampton at $8 million. Right before this Maddux was offered arbitration since JS completely freaked out at the idea of a staff of Millwood, Moss, Marquis, Ramirez, and Hodges and knew that by offering Maddux arbitration the odds of not entering a season with this staff woud be improved. Anyhow, JS grabs Paul Byrd at a price he can't afford (what else am I led to believe by $3 million the first year and $7 million the second). Moss goes to SF in a deal for Russ Ortiz and suddenly Maddux throws JS a curveball by accepting arbitration. Now without a choice he unloads Millwood for Estrada, a catcher he never thought would be an allstar but would give options since Javy Lopez was going to be gone with more payroll cuts on the horizon. My belief is that JS was fully aware of the possibility of Maddux accepting arbitration and forcing a Millwood trade when he pulled the trigger on the Hampton deal but valued having Hampton more than having the flexibility with Maddux and Millwood. I hated the Hampton trade at the time and hate it now so I'm a little biased but I don't see why the general consensus everywhere is that JS was forced to trade Millwood. He isn't stupid and certainly considered the possibilty of Maddux accepting arbitration when he made each of his major moves between offering Maddux arbitration and trading Millwood.

[C-Dawg]

I suddenly miss him a little more than I did last night.

[FalconPride]

How bad do the Braves miss Ramirez?

About as bad as I miss having my nuts hit by a baseball in little league. A run-of-the-mill fifth start is a dime a dozen. A shutdown pitcher who takes the mound with the game close and mows down the competition is not. Am I supposed to be surprised Ramirez has looked good at Safeco over two starts? Better question is if you base any decision or trend on two starts, you are jumping to a conclusion or trying to dictate a trent that helps out the argument you have already decided to make.

Ramirez's ERA is actually kind to him. 48 hits and a 15/11 BB/SO ratio in 32.1 ING? He has been horrible this year.

[Chopaholic]

How bad do the Braves miss Ramirez?

About as bad as I miss having my nuts hit by a baseball in little league. A run-of-the-mill fifth start is a dime a dozen.


Brother can you spare a dime?

Well if you can send it to the braves b/c they need a run of the mill fifth starter.

I do not think you addressed my point. It is obvious that I did not base an argument on a 2 game trend. Besides, if you read the whole thing, I said it was a good deal for the Braves.

[thegame10]

I think we could've survived without Estrada for couple of years with McCann and Salty coming up through the pipeline.

Chances are, without Estrada having the year he did alongside J.D. Drew, we may not have made the playoffs in 2004. He pretty much carried the Braves during the summer.

[FalconPride]

Brother can you spare a dime?

Well if you can send it to the braves b/c they need a run of the mill fifth starter.

I do not think you addressed my point. It is obvious that I did not base an argument on a 2 game trend. Besides, if you read the whole thing, I said it was a good deal for the Braves.
You didn't seem to base an argument on much. For what it's worth, Mark Redman isn't as horrible as he showed himself to be. Frankly, I doubt he's much worse than Ramirez, if any. Not that Redman is any good, but that's how replacable Ramirez was.

[KB 34]

Chances are, without Estrada having the year he did alongside J.D. Drew, we may not have made the playoffs in 2004. He pretty much carried the Braves during the summer.
Couldn't the presence of Millwood and whoever JS would have gotten to replace Javy have changed things though?

[JCStone7]

Scott Boras.


:blast:

[Chopaholic]

You didn't seem to base an argument on much. For what it's worth, Mark Redman isn't as horrible as he showed himself to be. Frankly, I doubt he's much worse than Ramirez, if any. Not that Redman is any good, but that's how replacable Ramirez was.

Thanks for contradicting yourself before I even start to defend my post.
I am pretty sure that this post is not worth it but let me rehash: Granted: some of these are my opinions

1) Trading starters for relief pitchers is suspect based solely on the difference in of innings pitched.

2) The Braves 5th starter has been bad to the tune of 0-5 with 9+ ERA. Not my opinion just fact.

3) Ramirez has put together 5th starter quality numbers every other year. In saying this I should point out that he pitched 180+ innings twice. Obviously I am not saying he was lights out.

4) Soriano has never ptiched more than 60 innings in a season.

5) It is debatable that our bullpen would not be terrible without Soriano

6) Ramirez has a decent home record this year.

So I guess you could say I based my arguement on more than just Soriano has a decent home record this year and other years for that matter. But I understand that it is much easier to pick one weak argument out of post and try to make the poster look stupid. Thanks for being that dick.

[KB 34]

1. As a general rule starters shouldn't be traded for relievers but you break this rule if the other team is stupid.
2. The Braves have other options they didn't want to try instead of Redman like Harrison, Lerew, Hodges, Smith, even Barry. Redman pitched horribly for that many starts because the Braves gave him that many starts, not because there weren't other options.
3. Exactly, since his rookie year Horacio has been somewhere inbetween inconsistent and bad. Giving $2.8M to this type of pitcher is stupid.
4. Rafael Soriano's history of injuries is no worse than Horacio's and on the bright side, when healthy Soriano has always been good.
5. The bullpen would be a lot weaker I can tell you that.
6. Smoltz hasn't won 20 games since he returned to the rotation. Does that mean he didn't pitch well to win 20 games? RUSS ORTIZ won 20 games for the Braves. Did it mean that he was a solid ace? Nope, wins and loses are the result of a timely offense, timely pitching, and timely bullpen and defense help. Therefore, they give a measure of how lucky a pitcher is over the course of a reason.
It's easy to defend the Soriano trade because it was a no brainer on the part of JS. Horacio needed to go and he was turned into a wonderful relief pitcher who I do think will be the Braves closer next year. Horacio will be lucky to be anything more than a 6th starter next year if he keeps his pace up. He obivously does better at home because he plays at a place that A-Rod once said would cost Griffey 50 career HR.

[Chopaholic]

As I said for all of those reasons other than the contract issue (b/c I did not take account for that) it was a good deal for the Braves. The reason for the rehasing was b/c FP said I based my arguement solely on HoRam's home record. I was just showing that I did not.

[JCStone7]

Ramirez has a decent home record this year.



I think everybody has a good home record when they pitch in Safeco Field.

[vnodnarb]

I think everybody has a good home record when they pitch in Safeco Field.

gotta remember both pitchers are in the same stadium

[thegame10]

And it's not as though the 5th starter spot was expected to be this big of a problem. Cormier and Davies both had great springs, and it wasn't expected to be a hole in the rotation. Soriano has been great in the close games, and that's why we have him. Had it not been for the AWFUL bullpen last year, the Braves would have won the division by 5 games at least. Anybody that would rather have the inconsistency of Ramirez at the back of the rotation and have the bullpen without the great, right-handed arm of Soriano down in the pen is not looking at the big picture.

[FalconPride]

1) Trading starters for relief pitchers is suspect based solely on the difference in of innings pitched.
You act like that's an accepted truth. I'll take a great relief pitcher over a below-average starter anyday. The former will actually help you win.
2) The Braves 5th starter has been bad to the tune of 0-5 with 9+ ERA. Not my opinion just fact.
It's also incredibly early to be making any kind of judgement based on what, six or seven games?
3) Ramirez has put together 5th starter quality numbers every other year. In saying this I should point out that he pitched 180+ innings twice. Obviously I am not saying he was lights out.
"Every other year?" So that implies that he'll be able to put together a crappy fifth starter quality year? Well, you got me there. Horacio Ramirez in any given year can be a crappy fifth starter.
4) Soriano has never ptiched more than 60 innings in a season.
Horacio Ramirez has never struck out a batter an inning.
5) It is debatable that our bullpen would not be terrible without Soriano
It's debatable whether Ramirez would have helped us win those games the fifth starter lost. But the one thing that is not up for debate is that Soriano improves our team.
6) Ramirez has a decent home record this year.
In three games away from Safeco Field, Ramirez has looked abysmal. In three games at Safeco Field, Ramirez has looked average. Safeco is a major pitcher's park, Turner Field is rather neutral.

I didn't say that one thing was your whole argument. I said you didn't seem to base an argument on much. And the one thing you should have taken into account, you realize now you didn't.

Here is what my argument is.

A crappy fifth starter should cost you anywhere between the minimum and a million dollars. Horacio Ramirez does not.

A great shutdown reliever should cost you anywhere between $3M upwards depending on his save production. Rafael Soriano does not (and that's a good thing).

That's all you need to know. Just say the previous two paragraphs and you'll be okay. Or how about this? Any number of options in the system can replace Horacio Ramirez's production. How many pitchers in this system can replace Rafael Soriano's production? None. Joey Devine may get there, but that's a big "may."

[Jsh1284]

I'm with Falcon on this 100%

Soriano is most definitely one of the top relievers in the game. Horacio is an average to below average 5th/spot starter whom can occasionally put together a decent game .. just like Victor Zambrano .. and Jorge Sosa .. and about 150 other mediocre pitchers around the game. He's nothing special.

Also, I can't figure out why you'd even bring up this argument when we haven't even made it 1/4 of the way through the season. We just don't have enough to go on as of yet. When we find someone to adequately fill the 5th spot, it will be as if the Mariners gave us 1.5 million bucks along with a top ten relief pitcher .. for free.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

To sum it all up....The Braves miss Horacio about as much as they miss a hole in the head...

[Chopaholic]

How bad do the Braves miss Ramirez?

Better question is if you base any decision or trend on two starts, you are jumping to a conclusion or trying to dictate a trent that helps out the argument you have already decided to make.



Maybe I miss interpretted what you were getting at, but it seems to be what I thought you were saying. I really do not mind if you disagree, I was pretty sure when I created the thread that everyone would. But it seemed to me that you took a cheap shot at me.

My last post in this thread. I can't believe I have wasted this amount of time defending a pitcher that I loathed seeing pitch.