McCarroll21
03-26-2007, 05:02 PM
A Deeper Look Into Projections: Part I
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
Today I'm going to take a look into the projections of respected baseball statistician Bill James. I am going to look at James' projections for some of key stats for the Braves main pitchers, then determine whether I agree or disagree with the said projection. Since wins, losses and saves are more of a team stat, they are not included in the set of projections I will look into.
The Pitchers:
IP ERA WHIP AVG H K/9 BB/9
John Smoltz 227.0 3.17 1.14 0.246 209 7.93 1.98
Tim Hudson 223.0 3.75 1.30 0.258 219 5.97 2.87
Chuck James 186.0 3.53 1.20 0.237 163 7.94 2.95
Mark Redman 176.0 4.35 1.39 0.275 188 5.47 2.91
Mike Hampton 130.0 4.50 1.50 0.278 141 4.92 3.74
Lance Cormier 99.0 5.45 1.66 0.302 121 5.73 3.91
Bob Wickman 62.0 3.77 1.32 0.259 61 7.26 3.05
Mike Gonzalez 60.0 3.60 1.38 0.235 52 9.45 4.65
Rafael Soriano 63.0 3.29 1.14 0.223 54 8.86 2.57
Macay McBride 63.0 4.57 1.57 0.268 65 8.57 4.86I chose this set of pitchers because Cormier will begin the season with Atlanta and Hampton will take his place when he returns from injury. The relievers are chosen because these will be the main four guys we turn to in the bullpen.
What you're looking at, are the statistics of the pitchers projected to pitch 1289 of the 1458 innings the Braves will pitch this season. Why 1458? Simple. 162 times 9 is 1458. Obviously there will be some games that the Braves only pitch 8 innings (when losing on the road) and there will be some games that go longer than 9 innings, so this isn't a perfect number but it's as close as I can get.
This comes out to being 88.4% of the Braves innings pitched, so obviously these are important numbers to crunch.
First, I'm going to quickly go over the lines that appear accurate to me. When I look across Smoltz' line, everything appears to be fairly accurate. If push came to shove, I could see a higher ERA coming from Smoltz, but there isn't anything that raises a red flag. Redman's stats also appear to be correct. A solid option for a number four or five pitcher, but not much more than that. Hampton seems to be about right. I would like to think he would have a better line than that, but when it comes down to it, that is probably about what we need to expect. I think he will strike out more batters than that, but not anymore than 5.5 per nine innings. All of the relievers appear to be right on, though McBride probably won't approach those IP because he will likely see more one out situations with the arrival of Gonzalez. I would think we could see more strikeouts from Soriano, and probably a little less strikeouts from Wickman.
Now, onto my problem spots.
Tim Hudson. This is where statistical analysis doesn't factor in hard work and desire. If we've learned anything from Spring Training, it's that Tim Hudson is for real about returning to the elite level of pitchers. I would expect Hudson's WHIP to be closer to 1.20, thus dropping the hits, average against and ERA. His Ks and walks appear to be close, but I think we may see something a little better in both of those areas.
Chuck James. I don't have much gripe with his statistical line, but I think James will approach 200 innings this year. Chuck averaged 6 innings per start last year, natural progression would say you can expect him to go a little deeper in games this year, so I'm expecting him to average 6 1/2 innings per start this season. Give him 32 starts at 6 1/2 innings pitched, and that comes out to 208 innings on the year. Will he reach that? Only time will tell, but I think that is closer to what will be correct than 186. With more innings, his ERA and WHIP will rise a little, 3.70 and 1.30, respectively, and his K/9 will drop some, but he will still be a very solid number three pitcher for the Braves.
Lance Cormier. This is where you have to weight past performance versus Spring Training stats. I know Spring Training stats aren't a great judge of talent, but let me explain why I think Spring Training means something here. First of all, I don't think Cormier is that bad of a pitcher to post a 5.45 ERA in right at 100 innings. The projected WHIP seems very high, as does the average against him. So already knowing I don't expect him to be that bad anyway, let's get into the Spring Training stuff. Cormier has been outstanding this spring. When you take into account that Cormier will start at least five games in the place of Mike Hampton, he will pitch one third of his projected 99 innings pitched coming straight off a hot Spring Training. Because of that, I would expect Cormier to get off to a good start, and we all know it is easier to keep your stats good than make them good after starting bad. If I were to guess something about Cormier, I'd say that he's probably closer to a pitcher with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. The lower WHIP would also be apparent in his hits allowed and average against. The K and walk numbers appear to be correct, but I have a major gripe with that 1.66 WHIP.
Mike Gonzalez. I see no way that Mike Gonzalez posts a 3.60 ERA. Gonzalez has never posted an ERA above 2.70 in a full season in the big leagues, and all of a sudden it is going to balloon to 3.60? I don't think so. He's always had a problem with walking batters, but he gets away with it because of his huge strikeout rate, which I also think is low. It should be in the 10.5 range, not 9.5, but that's just me. He doesn't give up homeruns and strikes out batters at an unbelievable rate, so it's not like his walks will come back to bite him.
I don't feel that anyone is given a projection that is too good for them. Some of the projections are a little too good in some areas, but nothing that screams out that they're receiving a projection that shows them being better than what they are.
There you have it, my look into the Braves pitching staff, complements of Bill James. I will take a closer look at the hitters later in the week.
To check out other players, you can check out the 2007 projections by Bill James for free by going to Fan Graphs.com (http://www.fangraphs.com/), searching for a player and viewing their stat page.
Do you have a different opinion than I do? Go to our website and post your thoughts on these projections, and even go to Fan Graphs.com (http://www.fangraphs.com/) and pull out some players of your own. If you have your own projections, how do the projections from Bill James compare to yours?
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
Today I'm going to take a look into the projections of respected baseball statistician Bill James. I am going to look at James' projections for some of key stats for the Braves main pitchers, then determine whether I agree or disagree with the said projection. Since wins, losses and saves are more of a team stat, they are not included in the set of projections I will look into.
The Pitchers:
IP ERA WHIP AVG H K/9 BB/9
John Smoltz 227.0 3.17 1.14 0.246 209 7.93 1.98
Tim Hudson 223.0 3.75 1.30 0.258 219 5.97 2.87
Chuck James 186.0 3.53 1.20 0.237 163 7.94 2.95
Mark Redman 176.0 4.35 1.39 0.275 188 5.47 2.91
Mike Hampton 130.0 4.50 1.50 0.278 141 4.92 3.74
Lance Cormier 99.0 5.45 1.66 0.302 121 5.73 3.91
Bob Wickman 62.0 3.77 1.32 0.259 61 7.26 3.05
Mike Gonzalez 60.0 3.60 1.38 0.235 52 9.45 4.65
Rafael Soriano 63.0 3.29 1.14 0.223 54 8.86 2.57
Macay McBride 63.0 4.57 1.57 0.268 65 8.57 4.86I chose this set of pitchers because Cormier will begin the season with Atlanta and Hampton will take his place when he returns from injury. The relievers are chosen because these will be the main four guys we turn to in the bullpen.
What you're looking at, are the statistics of the pitchers projected to pitch 1289 of the 1458 innings the Braves will pitch this season. Why 1458? Simple. 162 times 9 is 1458. Obviously there will be some games that the Braves only pitch 8 innings (when losing on the road) and there will be some games that go longer than 9 innings, so this isn't a perfect number but it's as close as I can get.
This comes out to being 88.4% of the Braves innings pitched, so obviously these are important numbers to crunch.
First, I'm going to quickly go over the lines that appear accurate to me. When I look across Smoltz' line, everything appears to be fairly accurate. If push came to shove, I could see a higher ERA coming from Smoltz, but there isn't anything that raises a red flag. Redman's stats also appear to be correct. A solid option for a number four or five pitcher, but not much more than that. Hampton seems to be about right. I would like to think he would have a better line than that, but when it comes down to it, that is probably about what we need to expect. I think he will strike out more batters than that, but not anymore than 5.5 per nine innings. All of the relievers appear to be right on, though McBride probably won't approach those IP because he will likely see more one out situations with the arrival of Gonzalez. I would think we could see more strikeouts from Soriano, and probably a little less strikeouts from Wickman.
Now, onto my problem spots.
Tim Hudson. This is where statistical analysis doesn't factor in hard work and desire. If we've learned anything from Spring Training, it's that Tim Hudson is for real about returning to the elite level of pitchers. I would expect Hudson's WHIP to be closer to 1.20, thus dropping the hits, average against and ERA. His Ks and walks appear to be close, but I think we may see something a little better in both of those areas.
Chuck James. I don't have much gripe with his statistical line, but I think James will approach 200 innings this year. Chuck averaged 6 innings per start last year, natural progression would say you can expect him to go a little deeper in games this year, so I'm expecting him to average 6 1/2 innings per start this season. Give him 32 starts at 6 1/2 innings pitched, and that comes out to 208 innings on the year. Will he reach that? Only time will tell, but I think that is closer to what will be correct than 186. With more innings, his ERA and WHIP will rise a little, 3.70 and 1.30, respectively, and his K/9 will drop some, but he will still be a very solid number three pitcher for the Braves.
Lance Cormier. This is where you have to weight past performance versus Spring Training stats. I know Spring Training stats aren't a great judge of talent, but let me explain why I think Spring Training means something here. First of all, I don't think Cormier is that bad of a pitcher to post a 5.45 ERA in right at 100 innings. The projected WHIP seems very high, as does the average against him. So already knowing I don't expect him to be that bad anyway, let's get into the Spring Training stuff. Cormier has been outstanding this spring. When you take into account that Cormier will start at least five games in the place of Mike Hampton, he will pitch one third of his projected 99 innings pitched coming straight off a hot Spring Training. Because of that, I would expect Cormier to get off to a good start, and we all know it is easier to keep your stats good than make them good after starting bad. If I were to guess something about Cormier, I'd say that he's probably closer to a pitcher with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. The lower WHIP would also be apparent in his hits allowed and average against. The K and walk numbers appear to be correct, but I have a major gripe with that 1.66 WHIP.
Mike Gonzalez. I see no way that Mike Gonzalez posts a 3.60 ERA. Gonzalez has never posted an ERA above 2.70 in a full season in the big leagues, and all of a sudden it is going to balloon to 3.60? I don't think so. He's always had a problem with walking batters, but he gets away with it because of his huge strikeout rate, which I also think is low. It should be in the 10.5 range, not 9.5, but that's just me. He doesn't give up homeruns and strikes out batters at an unbelievable rate, so it's not like his walks will come back to bite him.
I don't feel that anyone is given a projection that is too good for them. Some of the projections are a little too good in some areas, but nothing that screams out that they're receiving a projection that shows them being better than what they are.
There you have it, my look into the Braves pitching staff, complements of Bill James. I will take a closer look at the hitters later in the week.
To check out other players, you can check out the 2007 projections by Bill James for free by going to Fan Graphs.com (http://www.fangraphs.com/), searching for a player and viewing their stat page.
Do you have a different opinion than I do? Go to our website and post your thoughts on these projections, and even go to Fan Graphs.com (http://www.fangraphs.com/) and pull out some players of your own. If you have your own projections, how do the projections from Bill James compare to yours?