Off-season Forecast

[McCarroll21]

A few days ago in Guy Curtright posted an entry about the off-season in his AJC blog.

Previewing the off-season (http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2006/09/08/previewing_the.html)

It will be a busy offseason for general manager John Schuerholz as he tries to make the Braves a playoff team again.

Where will he start?

After picking up John Smoltz’s option, the GM’s next move should be re-signing closer Bob Wickman.

Is Wickman a sure thing to duplicate his recent success with the Braves next season? No.

But Wickman still remains the best option for the Braves if he is willing to sign for something near the $5 million he made this season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

He then went on to say that Giles and Hudson were two likely trade candidates.

My question to you is this: If you were in JS shoes, what would you do to prepare the Braves for next season. This is what I want. I want to list what you would do if you were JS after this season. Starting from in-house options to improving the team through trades and FA. Posting trades is accepted here (usually I'm against it because it's too unpredictable), but make them reasonable. Meaning, only post trades that include players that are likely to be traded ... don't try to trade Francoeur or trade for Beltran, Howard, etc. After you're done posting your moves, list the position battles you would expect for Spring Training considering your team and the team you would most likely exit Spring Training with, assuming everyone is healthy.

Recap:
Complete in-house options. -- Picking up options, arbitration eligible players, etc.
Upgrade team through trades and FA.
Post position battles for ST.
Post team you would leave ST with.While doing this, remember that we will most likey still be capped at $80 million for payroll -- you don't have to list money figures, but think about what we can afford before you bring them in.

List it all out in one post so we don't have to search all over the place for your moves. Hopefully this sparks some good discussion. I'll post mine later.

[hawki]

hmmm good post McCaroll!

1.) Pick up Smoltz's option and declare him the closer
2.) Trade Giles and Horacio for Justin Duchscherer and Marco Scutaro
3.) Sign Tom Glavine to a 1 year deal

2b Aybar
SS Renteria
3b C.Jones
Cf A.Jones
C McCann
Rf Francoeur
1b LaRoche
Lf Diaz

Glavine
Hudson
Hampton
James
Davies

Villarreal-Cormier-Duchscherer-McBride-Wickman-Smoltz

[McCarroll21]

Great. Now that someone posted in here, I'll start working on mine. I figured you would have gone into more detail than that. If you want to add more to it, edit your original post so we can keep everyone's ideas together. When March rolls around I'll dig this up and see who came the closest.

[Vuchato]

Complete in-house options. -- Picking up options, arbitration eligible players, etc.
Upgrade team through trades and FA.
Post position battles for ST.
Post team you would leave ST with.here's what I'd do, although I doubt it's what'll happen.

1. tender everyone but Reitsma
pick up Smoltz's option (I think that's our only option)

2. sign Todd Greene-1 y/ 0.8 Mil
trade Andruw to Texas for Bauer, DeRosa, and Danks/Diamond
trade Smoltz and Thorman to Detroit for Bonderman
Offer Reitsma a small contract
Sign Zito 5 years 45 M

3. Diaz/Johnson for LF
Davies/Cormier/Villarreal/Ramirez for last rotation spot
1) Davies wins, he gets rotation spot, Cormier in long relief, Ramirez in minors, Villarreal starting in minors, working on stamina
2) Cormier wins, Villarreal gets long relief, Davies works in AAA, Ramirez in AAA
3) Villarreal wins, Cormier gets long relief spot, Davies works in AAA, Ramirez in AAA
4) Ramirez wins, Cormier gets long relief spot, Davies & Villarreal in minors
Paronto/Boyer/Devine/Startup/Franklin/Stockman for last bullpen spot

4.
SP-Zito/Hudson/James/Bonderman/Ramirez
RP-Wickman/Bauer/McBride/Foster/Yates/Paronto/Cormier
Diaz-LF
Renteria-SS
Jones-3B
LaRoche-1B
McCann-C
DeRosa-RF
Giles-2B
Francoeur-CF
Bench-Langerhans/Johnson/Greene/Aybar/Jurries

Villarreal in minors working on stamina as a starter

[McCarroll21]

McCarroll21's Off-season Blueprint
In-house options
Pick up Smoltz option (already done)
Re-sign Bob Wickman (already done)
Re-sign Todd Pratt to a 1 year/750K contract.
Arbirtation eligible
Bring back:
LaRoche and Villarreal
Let go:
Baez, Franklin (already done), and Reitsma
Trades
Tim Hudson and Jarrod Saltalammachia to New York Yankees for Alex Rodriguez (Texas is paying 9M/year).
Edgar Renteria to Minnesota Twins for Matt Garza and a prospect.
Andruw Jones to Anaheim Angels for Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana, and Scot Shields.
Ryan Langerhans and Horacio Ramirez to Cincinatti Reds for Ryan Freel.
Position battles for ST
Last spot in rotation
Davies
Garza
Last two spots in bullpen
Paronto
Startup
Villarreal
Yates
Backup Catcher
Pratt
Pena
Roster leaving ST (2007 salary)
Rotation
Smoltz ($8,000,000)
Hampton ($8,000,000)
Santana (~$500,000)
James (~$500,000)
Winner position battle 1 (~$400,000)
Bullpen
Wickman ($6,500,000)
Shields (~$2,500,000)
Boyer (~$400,000)
Devine (~$400,000)
McBride (~$500,000)
Two winners of position battle 2 (~$500,000)
Lineup
Figgins, LF ($3,500,000)
Giles, 2B (~$4,250,000)
C. Jones, 3B ($11,000,000)
Rodriguez, SS ($16,000,000)
McCann, C (~$500,000)
Francoeur, RF (~$500,000)
LaRoche, 1B (~$1,000,000)
Freel, CF ($1,700,000)
Bench
Aybar -- backup IF (~$400,000)
Diaz -- backup LF (~$400,000)
Johnson -- UTIL (~$400,000)
Thorman -- backup 1B (~$330,000)
Winner position battle 3 (~$600,000) Total Payroll: ~$69,280,000

All of the estimations are on the high side, except for my FA signings.

Note on trades:
*Yankees - Clears Hudson off the books while giving us a middle of the order hitter and potential gold glover at SS. Gets A-Rod out of New York and closer to his hometown of Miami. Salty isn't going to catch for us, if we can get A-Rod in a deal for him, I call it a success.
*Twins - After adding A-Rod, we have to move Edgar elsewhere. This nets us a guy who could open in the rotation, he gives us added pitching depth in the minors if nothing else.
Angels - Clears Andruw Jones' upcoming salary off the books. Adds a leadoff hitter and a guy who can play everywhere. Figgins becomes the teams backup SS, as well as starting LF. Santana slots in as our Number 3 starter, again adding young pitching who can produce right now. Shields adds some bullpen depth so we don't overwork Wickman. You never want to trade Andruw, but this provides us with some pitching depth.
Reds - Most importantly, it clears Horacio off the books. Freel gives us another guy who can play all over the field, and another leadoff candidate. Slots in as the teams starting CF with Andruw gone.*With Hudson's salary raising to 13M in 2008, and Edgar set to make $6.33M, doing these trades actually cuts future salary even with taking on A-Rods contract.

Cut Pete Orr, or deal him away for a mid-level prospect. Money left over allows us to make moves at the deadline. I would also look at locking up LaRoche, McCann, and Francoeur to 5 or 6 year deals, taking away their arbitration and a few FA years.




We're overall a younger team, especially pitching, and we're a more complete team than we've seen before. We've got a few versitile players in Freel, Figgins and Aybar. Francoeur could also play CF if needed. This team gives us a good defensive team with potential gold glovers everywhere except 3B, and Chipper is better than he gets credit for.

Adds depth to the pitching (by adding Garza and the guys who lose out on the last bullpen spots to the minor leagues. We have a good rotation, with a chance to be great. Our bullpen is in that same boat.

Our offense has a leadoff man and a prototypical #2 hitter, then followed by the same thunder we've had this past season, even though we lose Andruw. Follow up A-Rod with McCann, Francoeur, and LaRoche and then come back with Freel hitting 8th. I like Freel hitting there because he's an OBP guy who will reach in front of the pitcher, either giving him a chance to bunt Freel along or to clear the pitcher's spot and help turn the lineup over ... basically a 2nd leadoff man.

[vnodnarb]

mac, what about thorman? send him to triple A?

and i agree with most of it, but i would trade giles

[McCarroll21]

mac, what about thorman? send him to triple A?

and i agree with most of it, but i would trade giles
About Thorman, to start the year ... I would.

About Giles, he and Hudson are the guys I have in mind when I said I'll probably add to the trade list (if Giles is traded that opens up a bench spot for Thorman).

[Nasadega]

I don't understand how you guys can even consider Villareal not being in the bp next year ? He's level has gone upwards all year long, he's often saved the braves when starters choked early, he's got a lof of effective pitches (is fastball is a killer), he's still got room for improvement and he can start games if needed. I would take Villa over Boyer or Devine any day. For the rest I agree with you Josh, but I think Red sox will never let Mirabelli go as long as Wakefield is with them.

[vnodnarb]

i totally agree with you on villareal, i guess we just have a lot of options, one thing that surprises me is the confidence people have in boyer after missing a whole year and only having one year of experience under his belt

[Vuchato]

I put him in the minors because I think he could be a successful starter, which I feel a successful starter in one year is more valuable than a long reliever /spot starter who you can have now.

[McCarroll21]

I'm scared that he'll be more of a Sosa type player where we got a lot more than we expected in year 1 and then he reverts back to what we originally expected we'd get in year 2, although that's not good enough because he had raised expectations.

I think he'll be in the pen unless he's traded ... but he won't be counted on as a setup man out of ST.

[Nasadega]

Well it's not his first year in the bigs. In 2003 with the dbacks he had an excellent rookie year before injuries held him off the mound. I think he's proven you can rely on him anytime. 1.28 WHIP in 2006 and an almost 1/2 BB/K ratio both this year and lifetime.

[McCarroll21]

Our first year with Sosa wasn't his first in the league either. I think he'll be traded, which I'll get back to in my post at some point.

[hawki]

Our moves this year should be to trade Giles and Horacio

[Nasadega]

But Sosa was sucking before coming to Atlanta ...
Well everybody has it's own view and it's great. I think that he'll stay in the bullpen next year :)

[McCarroll21]

Updated my blueprint for this offseason.

[hawki]

Updated my blueprint for this offseason.


Thank god you're not the GM! :rolleyes:

There is no way that we will win with a rotation of

Smoltz
Hudson
Hampton
James
Davies

Too many question marks and concerns. Smoltz is old and brittle, Hudson isnt good, Hampton is coming off of injury and James is pretty good. Davies? One of the worst pitchers ever

How about a return to the NL for Josh Beckett?

Andruw for Crisp and Beckett

[oyhstah crachah]

ick

[Chief Knockahoma]

McCarroll21's Off-season Blueprint
In-house options
Pick up Smoltz option (already done)
Re-sign Bob Wickman (already done)
Re-sign Daryle Ward (1 year/975K-1M)
Arbirtation eligible
Bring back:
LaRoche, and Villarreal
Let go:
Baez, Franklin, and Reitsma
Trades
Tim Hudson, Martin Prado and Scott Thorman to Tampa Bay for Carl Crawford and minor league pitcher Jeff Niemann.
Horacio Ramirez, Marcus Giles, and Ryan Langerhans to LA Dodgers for Derek Lowe and Jonathan Broxton.
Brandon Jones, Anthony Lerew and Oscar Villarreal to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez.
Free Agents
Sign Craig Counsell to a 1 year/2-2.2M contract.
Attempt to sign Mirabelli (1 year/1-1.2M).
If Mirabelli rejects, offer minor league contract to Todd Greene and Todd Pratt.
Sign first to accept.
Position battles for ST
Last spot in rotation (losers start in AAA, unless Broxton loses)
Broxton
Davies
Niemann
Last two spots in bullpen (loser starts in AAA)
**If Broxton misses on rotation, he starts in bullpen. Thus leaving Paronto and Yates fighting for last spot.**
Broxton (if he loses position battle 1) -- lock for team in some capacity
Paronto
Yates
Backup Catcher (if miss on Mirabelli and sign Greene/Pratt)
FA Catcher
Pena
Roster leaving ST (2007 salary)
Rotation
Smoltz ($8,000,000)
Lowe ($9,500,000)
Hampton ($8,000,000)
James (~$500,000)
Winner of position battle 1 (~$500,000)
Bullpen
Wickman ($6,500,000)
Gonzalez (~$500,000)
Boyer (~$400,000)
Devine (~$400,000)
McBride (~$500,000)
Two winners of position battle 2 (~$500,000)
Lineup
Crawford, LF ($4,000,000)
Renteria, SS ($6,333,333)
C. Jones, 3B ($11,000,000)
A. Jones, CF ($13,500,000)
McCann, C (~$500,000)
Francoeur, RF (~$500,000)
LaRoche, 1B (~$1,000,000)
Aybar, 2B (~$400,000)
Bench
Counsell -- backup IF (~$2,000,000)
Diaz -- backup LF (~$400,000)
Johnson -- UTIL (~$400,000)
Ward -- backup 1B (~$1,000,000)
Winner position battle 3 (~$600,000) Total Payroll: ~$76,933,333

All of the estimations are on the high side, except for my FA signings.

Note on signings:
Counsell - Gives us a guy who knows what it takes to win coming off the bench. Decent bat to use in the pinch, plus a guy who is good enough to start anywhere on the infield defensively.
Ward - Powerful LH bat off the bench, which every team needs. He could step in at 1B and the corner OF spots on any given day to provide a player with a day off.
Backup catcher - Well, we have to have one. Note on trades:
Tampa Bay - Clears Hudson off the books while giving us our full-time LF and leadoff hitter at only $4M. Also nets a good minor league pitcher and will also cause some competition for the 5th spot in ST.
Dodgers - While Lowe has a heavy price tag, he provides a solid #1/#2 pitcher to pair with Smoltz -- and another proven post season pitcher. Adding this to the Hudson deal, trading Giles and Horacio allows us to take on Lowe's salary. We also get a very good pitching prospect that could either make the rotation or be a reliable arm in the bullpen.
Pirates - Trades a good OF prospect and a good pitching prospect to the Pirates, along with a guy who has proven he can take on any role in the pitching staff to get us a top LH setup man, and a guy who will fill in for closer Bob Wickman so we don't overwork him.Cut Pete Orr, or deal him away for a mid-level prospect.

All other players under Braves control start in AAA. This gives us a lot of pitching in AAA for when we need it.

Also creates some room to make a mid-season trade and/or extend Andruw's contract.

I would also look at locking up LaRoche, McCann, and Francoeur to 5 or 6 year deals, taking away their arbitration and a few FA years.



Still not completely satisfied with that, but I think that's the direction we need to go.

After reading through all of it....WOW!

talk about a restructuring of the team...and it would fill in some definite holes we have...and it would get Willy A. some playing time!

[hotcorner33]

McCarroll21's Off-season Blueprint

In-house options
Pick up Smoltz option (already done)
Re-sign Bob Wickman (already done)
Re-sign Daryle Ward (1 year/975K-1M)
Arbirtation eligible
Bring back:
LaRoche, and Villarreal


Let go:
Baez, Franklin, and Reitsma

Trades

Tim Hudson, Martin Prado and Scott Thorman to Tampa Bay for Carl Crawford and minor league pitcher Jeff Niemann.
Horacio Ramirez, Marcus Giles, and Ryan Langerhans to LA Dodgers for Derek Lowe and Jonathan Broxton.
Brandon Jones, Anthony Lerew and Oscar Villarreal to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez.
Free Agents

Sign Craig Counsell to a 1 year/2-2.2M contract.
Attempt to sign Mirabelli (1 year/1-1.2M).
If Mirabelli rejects, offer minor league contract to Todd Greene and Todd Pratt.
Sign first to accept.

Position battles for ST

Last spot in rotation (losers start in AAA, unless Broxton loses)
Broxton
Davies
Niemann
Last two spots in bullpen (loser starts in AAA)
**If Broxton misses on rotation, he starts in bullpen. Thus leaving Paronto and Yates fighting for last spot.**

Broxton (if he loses position battle 1) -- lock for team in some capacity
Paronto
Yates
Backup Catcher (if miss on Mirabelli and sign Greene/Pratt)

FA Catcher
Pena

Roster leaving ST (2007 salary)

Rotation
Smoltz ($8,000,000)
Lowe ($9,500,000)
Hampton ($8,000,000)
James (~$500,000)
Winner of position battle 1 (~$500,000)
Bullpen

Wickman ($6,500,000)
Gonzalez (~$500,000)
Boyer (~$400,000)
Devine (~$400,000)
McBride (~$500,000)
Two winners of position battle 2 (~$500,000)
Lineup

Crawford, LF ($4,000,000)
Renteria, SS ($6,333,333)
C. Jones, 3B ($11,000,000)
A. Jones, CF ($13,500,000)
McCann, C (~$500,000)
Francoeur, RF (~$500,000)
LaRoche, 1B (~$1,000,000)
Aybar, 2B (~$400,000)
Bench

Counsell -- backup IF (~$2,000,000)
Diaz -- backup LF (~$400,000)
Johnson -- UTIL (~$400,000)
Ward -- backup 1B (~$1,000,000)
Winner position battle 3 (~$600,000)
Total Payroll: ~$76,933,333

All of the estimations are on the high side, except for my FA signings.

Note on signings:

Counsell - Gives us a guy who knows what it takes to win coming off the bench. Decent bat to use in the pinch, plus a guy who is good enough to start anywhere on the infield defensively.
Ward - Powerful LH bat off the bench, which every team needs. He could step in at 1B and the corner OF spots on any given day to provide a player with a day off.
Backup catcher - Well, we have to have one.Note on trades:

Tampa Bay - Clears Hudson off the books while giving us our full-time LF and leadoff hitter at only $4M. Also nets a good minor league pitcher and will also cause some competition for the 5th spot in ST.
Dodgers - While Lowe has a heavy price tag, he provides a solid #1/#2 pitcher to pair with Smoltz -- and another proven post season pitcher. Adding this to the Hudson deal, trading Giles and Horacio allows us to take on Lowe's salary. We also get a very good pitching prospect that could either make the rotation or be a reliable arm in the bullpen.
Pirates - Trades a good OF prospect and a good pitching prospect to the Pirates, along with a guy who has proven he can take on any role in the pitching staff to get us a top LH setup man, and a guy who will fill in for closer Bob Wickman so we don't overwork him.Cut Pete Orr, or deal him away for a mid-level prospect.

All other players under Braves control start in AAA. This gives us a lot of pitching in AAA for when we need it.

Also creates some room to make a mid-season trade and/or extend Andruw's contract.

I would also look at locking up LaRoche, McCann, and Francoeur to 5 or 6 year deals, taking away their arbitration and a few FA years.



Still not completely satisfied with that, but I think that's the direction we need to go.

Very good Mac. You make JS look bad! :chop:

[lavell12]

I don't see many big moves being made. Maybe AJ gets traded and a small chance Huddy is traded. Most likely to be traded in my mind are Marcus Giles and Horacio Ramirez.

[Vuchato]

McC, I'd be pretty surprised if the DRays accepted that trade. And BTW; mine is updated!

[Adam's Army]

im not so sure we should deal orr. a LF fielder is definitely gone though, we have Langerhans, Diaz, and Johnson will be back. Maybe we should trade Davies and keep Horacio? or maybe keep both and move one into the bull pen. I think Hudson will be back. I agree on resigning LaRoche, McCann, and Francoeur- at least 3 years each. Giles is definitely a trade possibility, although i would consider keeping him if we could get a LF or someone else to hit leadoff. However, I think Aybar could maybe be good at 2nd. we need someone good for the IF bench, since Chipper is likely to get hurt at some point. i would like to see a big trade or big free agent signing for a dominant 3rd starter (Smoltz, Hudso, ?).

[lavell12]

1. Sign Tom Glavine (2 yrs 13million)
2. Trade Marcus Giles and Joey Devine to the Tigers for Joel Zamaya
3. Trade Tim Hudson, Scott Thorman and Horacio Ramirez to the Dodgers for Derek Lowe and Olmedo Saenz
4. Sign Juan Pierre (3yrs 15million)
5. Let go: Brian Jordan, Todd Pratt, John Thomson, and Chris Reitsma
6. Send down: Villarreal, Yates, Paronto, and Barry
7. Trade Ryan Langerhans for some prospect

Lineup
Pierre LF
Renteria SS
Chipper 3B
Andruw CF
Mccann C
Francoeur RF
Laroche 1B
Aybar 2B

Starters
Smoltz
Glavine
Lowe
James
Hampton

Bullpen
Wickman
Zamaya
Mcbride
Cormier
Boyer
Foster

Bench
Penya
Saenz
Orr
Prado
Diaz

[Nasadega]

8. UNLOCK CAPS LOCK

[McCarroll21]

Drew, you have Aybar playing 2B and on the bench. I know he's good, but I don't know if that's legal.
8. UNLOCK CAPS LOCKAnd yes, listen to this. You are the only member having issues with typing in all CAPS. I don't want to turn a CAPS flood protection on just to combat one member...

[BGarrett7]

Four words: Bring. Back. Jason. Marquis.

[McCarroll21]

Four words: Bring. Back. Jason. Marquis.
To play LF?

[lavell12]

hmmm good post McCaroll!

1.) Pick up Smoltz's option and declare him the closer
2.) Trade Giles and Horacio for Justin Duchscherer and Marco Scutaro
3.) Sign Tom Glavine to a 1 year deal

2b Aybar
SS Renteria
3b C.Jones
Cf A.Jones
C McCann
Rf Francoeur
1b LaRoche
Lf Diaz

Glavine
Hudson
Hampton
James
Davies

Villarreal-Cormier-Duchscherer-McBride-Wickman-Smoltz

all that but keep smoltz in the rotation and send davies back to AAA

[Vuchato]

Sign Frank Catalanatto 1y/3M

Trade #1
Andruw Jones
Horacio Ramirez
for
Roy Oswalt

Trade #2
Marcus Giles
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
for
Jake Peavy

Trade #3
John Smoltz
Scott Thorman
for
Jeremy Bonderman

Trade #4
Kyle Davies
for
Carl Crawford


Catalanatto-LF
Renteria-SS
Jones-3B
LaRoche-1B
Crawford-CF
McCann-C
Francoeur-RF
Aybar-2B

Oswalt
Peavy
Bonderman
Hudson
James

Wickman
Yates
Devine
Paronto
McBride
Foster
Cormier

yay

[McCarroll21]

I've once again updated my blueprint. Click here (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2157#post2157).