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McCarroll21
09-05-2008, 07:51 AM
Who's Starting in 2009?
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com

http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/photoplog/images/1/medium/5_morton.jpgAs we begin to move from the dreadful 2008 season, people have to start thinking about what Braves fans can expect to see in the starting rotation for 2009.

On Opening Day to the 2008 season, the Braves had a starting rotation with a lot of veteran presence. Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton were on the staff on Opening Day, with John Smoltz soon to come off the disabled list to join the trio of veterans. Together, those four were supposed to provide the veteran leadership, while Jair Jurrjens slotted into the fifth spot in the rotation as a rookie.

Fast forward to 2009 and it begins to look like Jair Jurrjens may be the most experienced starter on the Braves staff.

In a theme that you'll see in anything I write throughout the off-season, my thought is that the Braves need to use 2009 as a stepping stone to the 2010 season and beyond. With that said, I feel the Braves should commit to the young starters they have on the roster and in their farm system, giving them an opportunity to learn how to pitch at this level. Like the Braves did in the late 80s with Glavine and Smoltz, the team will have to commit to giving them the leash these young starters need to take their lumps as they learn how to be successful in the major leagues.

I've often heard Smoltz talk about how spoiled he, Glavine and Avery were as they entered the major leagues because they didn't have any pressure to win when they pitched. He has talked at length about how that has hurt the development of a lot of the young Braves starters during the run as the team couldn't afford to lose games to allow them to grow as pitchers.

The Braves need to take that approach again with this 2009 staff as they build for 2010 and beyond.

When looking at the pitchers the Braves can use to start in 2009, you start with the three with nothing left to prove in the minor leagues: Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes. These three pitchers have the minor league track record to prove they know how to pitch, but each of them have had moments in the 2008 season that suggest they are still adapting to learning how to do it on the major league level. However, with nothing left to prove in Triple-A, no member of this trio should ever look at a trip to Gwinnett.

Where it gets tricky is how to surround the trio on the Braves staff. Do you enter the season with a 23 year old acting as the ace of your staff and fill the other two slots with young pitchers, as well? Do you shoot for the top and bring in the best free agent possible to help take a load off the rising stars? Do you look to bring in a veteran or two in hopes to bridge to the middle of the season when some prospects at Gwinnett separate themselves and earn a shot in the major league rotation as they did with Charlie Morton this season? Either way, something to factor into your decision making is the potential August return of Tim Hudson. However you do it, the Braves have to find a way to go into Spring Training with seven candidates for their starting rotation, along with having a couple others that should be ready by mid-season set to start the season at Gwinnett.

If I'm making the call, I'm not going to shoot for the moon and put all of my eggs in the basket of a C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets. I can't fathom spending more than $20 million on a single player, no matter how good he is. Instead, I'm going to take the quality in numbers approach and bring in two established veterans that aren't likely to cost a lot of money. I'm looking at the guys like Paul Byrd and Randy Wolf, perhaps taking a chance on an incentive deal with Mike Hampton. I would look to keep a pitcher like Jorge Campillo on the staff as a long reliever/spot starter kind of guy. These guys are invaluable to a staff, however, they shouldn't be counted on to start more than a handful of games.

Bringing in two starters like Byrd and Wolf would give you a good complement to the trio of young starters, while also allowing the team to keep some of their younger pitchers at Gwinnett for at least a half season as they continue to develop.

With the major league staff complete, let's look at what's in line behind them in the Braves farm system.

One of the pitchers the Braves are likely to view as an option at some point in 2009 started on Thursday against the Nationals, James Parr. Parr put together a strong minor league season in 2008, splitting it between Mississippi and Richmond. He made his major league debut on Thursday and made a very good first impression, giving the Braves six shutout innings, allowing just two hits. His performance through the month of September will no doubt go a long way in where the Braves see him in 2009.

After Parr, I think it is easy see the pitching talent the Braves currently have at their Double-A affiliate and it is logical to assume that the natural progression of a prospect is to move to the next level as they continue to grow. That said, the Mississippi Braves have pitched their way to a league championship and into the playoffs behind the success of Southern League Most Outstanding Pitcher Todd Redmond, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen and Deunte Heath and all of these pitchers should be pitching in Gwinnett for the upcoming season. Hanson, Medlen and Heath are all set to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, which could vault them to an even higher spot in the Braves food chain. The Arizona Fall League worked out quite well for Charlie Morton last year in a similar scenario.

Major League Staff
Paul Byrd*
Randy Wolf*
Jair Jurrjens
Charlie Morton
Jo-Jo Reyes

Waiting in Gwinnett
James Parr
Todd Redmond
Tommy Hanson
Kris Medlen
Deunte Heath

When looking at the makeup of a major league pitching staff, a baseball fan knows how inconceivable it is to believe that any team will go through the season with anything less than seven starting pitchers. If you are to enter a season with up to ten major league quality arms, as the Braves have, the team is less likely to be devastated by an injury to a member of the rotation.

In the plan I laid out above, I would have all five of these pitchers in major league camp fighting for a spot in the rotation. If one of these pitchers in the second group of five comes into camp and pitches as Jair Jurrjens did in Spring Training this year, a simple solution would be trading one of the veterans to the host of teams in need of starting pitching as the end of Spring Training closes in. Outside of the possibility of trading a starter to a contending team, an injury is bound to occur to a starter and open the door for one of the five I had stashed away at Gwinnett.

With as many quality pitchers as the Braves have, they shouldn't have a problem finding pitchers they can slot into the rotation for 2009. The only question left to answer is how young is too young? Do you go with five young pitchers, four young pitchers and a veteran, or take the route I suggested and go with two veterans and three young starters?

BF91
09-05-2008, 08:12 AM
Wouldn't we theoretically have enough money to get someone like Sheets or even Lowe or Burnett and then someone lesser, ala Byrd or Wolf? While I'd love to see the kids get their playing time do we really want the banner of ace falling on a 23 year old? If we spend a large chunk of our extra money this offseason it needs to be on the pitching staff. League-average can be had out of LF for little to nothing comparitively speaking, so let's grab an arm or two that can help us now and in the near future.

McCarroll21
09-05-2008, 08:19 AM
I don't think you need to sign anyone like that. If you give these kids time to grow, it won't matter who you sign to join them. Are the Rays doing it with millions tied up in one player? No. Are the Twins? No. Their pitchers are homegrown and developed, they did it the right way. It's what we did to become a good team in the first place and we can do it again. We have the pitchers in the minor leagues to do that ... and even more waiting behind them. We just have to stick with it this time instead of getting away from our principles of how to run our organization.

My opinion is that you give the kids a chance to grow and go from there. If signing a free agent to start the 2010 season is in the cards, then at least it's a complementary piece to what's already here. Kind of like signing Maddux in 1993, that was a signing that was so good because he joined Smoltz and Glavine who were already in place to form the best trio the game has ever seen. In my opinion, I stay away from a big name free agent this year as it gives the wrong impression. You can't do half and half, and that's what signing a big time player this off-season while waiting for the others to grow for 2010 would be.

To me, it's not about the amount of money we have, it's about tying up 1/5 of your payroll in one player that you really don't need.

I guess I'm saying that you don't try to rely on free agency to fix a broken ship, you use free agency to make what you already have, better. To go out and spend $20 million or more on one pitcher, you're trying to patch a hole in the sinking ship instead of attacking it the right way.

HTF
09-05-2008, 10:24 AM
I respectfully disagree a tiny bit. Either Morton or Reyes is bound to have a bad spring and Parr or Morton are gonna have a great spring a beat them out. As for Free Agent signings nobody knows what's gonna happen. We could trade for someone.

vnodnarb
09-05-2008, 10:34 AM
Great article, I think I agree with everything. I have no problem going into next season with no big FA acquisitions and if the young guys get to play all over the roster. I don't want to see guys like Nunez, Tavarez or Brian Jordan types.

BGarrett7
09-05-2008, 12:51 PM
I swear to God, if one more person mentions Sheets or Sabathia...

ahobbie
09-05-2008, 12:56 PM
So does anyone have an opinion on the Braves going after CC or Sheets? I know they are going to be available and we have alot of money to spend this offseason, so I was just wondering everyone's thoughts.:D

Sorry BG it was too hard to resist!

BF91
09-05-2008, 02:59 PM
I'm not saying that we should sign Sheets or Sabathia, but the fact is that every team is going to at least want to make an offer. I'm not saying that we should sign one of them, but when two of the most dominant pitchers in the NL become available you'd expect your FO to at least express interest in one of them.

HTF
09-05-2008, 03:15 PM
I'm not saying that we should sign Sheets or Sabathia, but the fact is that every team is going to at least want to make an offer. I'm not saying that we should sign one of them, but when two of the most dominant pitchers in the NL become available you'd expect your FO to at least express interest in one of them.

Oh no someone mentioned them both in one post. All hell is breaking loose.

SamtheBravesFan
09-05-2008, 03:31 PM
I swear to God, if one more person mentions Sheets or Sabathia...

TAKE COVER! *dons a doughboy helmet and dives in a trench*

JCStone7
09-05-2008, 05:15 PM
I wouldn't be opposed to having Randy Wolf come in eat innings, and be a veteran southpaw presence around Jo-Jo. With Jair and maybe Wolf in the fold as locks. You have a true open competition in spring with Redmond, Hanson, Parr, Morton, Jo-Jo, Campillo, DeSalvo, and whoever the hell else. The best 3 get a spot with the rest going to Gwinnett.

ahmed5456
09-06-2008, 01:02 AM
Wouldn't we theoretically have enough money to get someone like Sheets or even Lowe or Burnett and then someone lesser, ala Byrd or Wolf? While I'd love to see the kids get their playing time do we really want the banner of ace falling on a 23 year old? If we spend a large chunk of our extra money this offseason it needs to be on the pitching staff. League-average can be had out of LF for little to nothing comparitively speaking, so let's grab an arm or two that can help us now and in the near future. I totally agree. We have $$$$ in the offseason why not spend it on a SP.

ahmed5456
09-06-2008, 01:04 AM
So does anyone have an opinion on the Braves going after CC or Sheets? I know they are going to be available and we have alot of money to spend this offseason, so I was just wondering everyone's thoughts.:D

Sorry BG it was too hard to resist! Yes they are gonna be available. We are in desperate need for a #1 pitcher. Wren needs to make a decision. He needs to remember we have enough $$$ this off season to make a deal.

timmy
09-06-2008, 02:06 AM
I totally agree. We have $$$$ in the offseason why not spend it on a SP.

Yes they are gonna be available. We are in desperate need for a #1 pitcher. Wren needs to make a decision. He needs to remember we have enough $$$ this off season to make a deal.

You do know, you could just spell out M-O-N-E-Y, right? ;)

JCStone7
09-06-2008, 03:20 AM
I totally agree. We have $$$$ in the offseason why not spend it on a SP.

You don't spend 1/5 of your payroll annually on a player who plays in only a max of 35 games.

Yes they are gonna be available. We are in desperate need for a #1 pitcher. Wren needs to make a decision. He needs to remember we have enough $$$ this off season to make a deal.

Yes, Wren will have the money to spend this off-season, but it'd be better served to spend it wisely rather than spending it on a big name guy who will make a slight difference in 2009.


Now assuming the likes of Kelly, Francoeur, Escobar, and Kotchman return to their normal state the Braves are still hoping for a longshot in all 4 of those players, not to mention their starting pitching woes (the likes of a CC or Sheets won't solve). It's not a wise business move for the Braves to sign one of those players.

nittanylionfan3
09-06-2008, 11:46 AM
You do know, you could just spell out M-O-N-E-Y, right? ;)

way too much work Timmy! :nod:

fylr71
09-06-2008, 07:42 PM
The opening day rotation should include 3-4 of the young guys. Got to let Reyes and Morton take their lumps. Both of them have shown flashes. Hopefully they don't give up on those two in order to land a short term veteran. If there's 40 million available that needs to be spent in order to show the fans ownership cares, where to spend it. I like the idea of adding a decent veteran arm. After Sheets and Sabathia, the next two groups includes:

The first group are guys that will probably command Gil Meche type contracts while the second group could come at a more reasonable price. The ideal contract would be two years with an option. Either way, in order to keep the fan base, they're going to have to spend. Should be a very interesting offseason.

Burnett
Dempster
Garland
Lowe

Byrd
Looper
Wolf

MPH
09-06-2008, 08:57 PM
Sometimes unique situations require creative approaches, and with some guys - Hampton, for example - it might make sense to try something along the lines of Miami's contract extension with the "unique" RB Ricky Williams: "A source noted Williams will receive a roster bonus for every game he is on the team's 53-man roster this year. If he is injured and placed on Injured Reserve or if he is released, Williams will not receive money for those games. In 2009, Williams will have a $3.4 million base salary and a $100,000 workout bonus for the offseason. He did not receive any guaranteed money as part of his new deal."

BGarrett7
09-06-2008, 09:00 PM
Would be interesting to see if the MLBPA would agree to such a contract.

MPH
09-06-2008, 09:20 PM
Would be interesting to see if the MLBPA would agree to such a contract.
I was a little surprised it passed muster in the NFL too, but it does provide a reasonable approach to some situations. In the case of Ricky Williams, it met the needs of both the player and the team, while addressing both of their concerns.

This could also structured with a small guaranteed portion and a larger (incentive) portion that is subject to staying healthy and productive.

rover
09-09-2008, 07:24 AM
I didn't see a plan for what to do with Smoltz or Glavine this upcoming season.

Both have a chance of being healthy and attempting to pitch again (particularly Smoltz), and assuming Smoltz wants to pitch in the rotation, why are we talking about signing mid-level FA like Wolf or Byrd instead of going with true Braves and future HOF in these two?

And if we do decide to move forward from these two, it will be very interesting to see how that is handled. I would hate to see Glavine or Smoltz want to pitch and the Braves not willing to give them the opportunity. Either of those two in a different uniform would be too painful to watch.

BF91
09-09-2008, 08:00 AM
I didn't see a plan for what to do with Smoltz or Glavine this upcoming season.

Both have a chance of being healthy and attempting to pitch again (particularly Smoltz), and assuming Smoltz wants to pitch in the rotation, why are we talking about signing mid-level FA like Wolf or Byrd instead of going with true Braves and future HOF in these two?

And if we do decide to move forward from these two, it will be very interesting to see how that is handled. I would hate to see Glavine or Smoltz want to pitch and the Braves not willing to give them the opportunity. Either of those two in a different uniform would be too painful to watch.

I think we'd all love to see Glavine and Smoltz pitch if they could be effective, but that's a big if. Smoltz most likely couldn't be anything more than a bullpen arm, and with how often Tommy has been injured this year, people are wary of bringing him back. Wolf and Byrd are younger, could possibly be cheaper, and don't have the injury history (from this year at least) that Glavine and Smoltz do.

BGarrett7
09-09-2008, 01:14 PM
I didn't see a plan for what to do with Smoltz or Glavine this upcoming season.Smoltz will be with the team, but who really knows in what aspect. If I had to bet money, I'd say he'll probably come into spring training trying to land the closer's role.

Both have a chance of being healthy and attempting to pitch again (particularly Smoltz), and assuming Smoltz wants to pitch in the rotation, why are we talking about signing mid-level FA like Wolf or Byrd instead of going with true Braves and future HOF in these two? Give me Wolf/Byrd over Glavine/Smoltz any day. I would much rather put weight into a couple 30-something than two 40-somethings who have already broken down.

Either of those two in a different uniform would be too painful to watch.Uh, Glavine was just wearing a different uniform all of eleven months ago... I don't think it would be the end of the world if he retired wearing something other than Braves colors.

ahobbie
09-09-2008, 01:31 PM
Smoltz will be with the team, but who really knows in what aspect. If I had to bet money, I'd say he'll probably come into spring training trying to land the closer's role.

Give me Wolf/Byrd over Glavine/Smoltz any day. I would much rather put weight into a couple 30-something than two 40-somethings who have already broken down.

Uh, Glavine was just wearing a different uniform all of eleven months ago... I don't think it would be the end of the world if he retired wearing something other than Braves colors.

I agree, I want to see what the Braves can do when they don't have to worry about guys breaking down leaving them counting on inexperienced but talented prospects to win games. I know our prospects need innings to further develop but getting guys like Wolf, Byrd, maybe Lowe will really take the pressure off Jurrjens having to be the No. 1 guy and allow the other guys to work the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.

McCarroll21
09-09-2008, 02:38 PM
Since there was some talk about Hampton and a possible contract, I look at the contract that John Thomson got from the Blue Jays as a realistic option.


1 year/$0.5M (2007) (Toronto)


salary increases to $1.5M if Thomson is on Opening Day roster



performance bonuses to $4M based on games started


Something along those lines would be perfect for Hampton.

Go with a $500K base salary. If he makes it through Spring Training and makes the Opening Day roster, give him another $500K. Then give him a $2.5 million bonus that kicks in at 25 starts and then something like $10K for each start after that. We could so something similar based on innings pitched, too.

HTF
09-09-2008, 02:42 PM
Since there was some talk about Hampton and a possible contract, I look at the contract that John Thomson got from the Blue Jays as a realistic option.


1 year/$0.5M (2007) (Toronto)

salary increases to $1.5M if Thomson is on Opening Day roster



performance bonuses to $4M based on games started



Something along those lines would be perfect for Hampton.

Go with a $500K base salary. If he makes it through Spring Training and makes the Opening Day roster, give him another $500K. Then give him a $2.5 million bonus that kicks in at 25 starts and then something like $10K for each start after that. We could so something similar based on innings pitched, too.

Sounds good too me. I like the 2nd stipulation more than the 1st, because Hampton was on the Opening day roster this year but never pitched till August.

BF91
09-09-2008, 05:21 PM
Since there was some talk about Hampton and a possible contract, I look at the contract that John Thomson got from the Blue Jays as a realistic option.


1 year/$0.5M (2007) (Toronto)


salary increases to $1.5M if Thomson is on Opening Day roster


performance bonuses to $4M based on games started

Something along those lines would be perfect for Hampton.

Go with a $500K base salary. If he makes it through Spring Training and makes the Opening Day roster, give him another $500K. Then give him a $2.5 million bonus that kicks in at 25 starts and then something like $10K for each start after that. We could so something similar based on innings pitched, too.

I'm down with that. Maybe slap on a few more bonuses for Wins, ERA, and stuff like that.

nittanylionfan3
09-09-2008, 06:21 PM
Since there was some talk about Hampton and a possible contract, I look at the contract that John Thomson got from the Blue Jays as a realistic option.


1 year/$0.5M (2007) (Toronto)

salary increases to $1.5M if Thomson is on Opening Day roster



performance bonuses to $4M based on games started



Something along those lines would be perfect for Hampton.

Go with a $500K base salary. If he makes it through Spring Training and makes the Opening Day roster, give him another $500K. Then give him a $2.5 million bonus that kicks in at 25 starts and then something like $10K for each start after that. We could so something similar based on innings pitched, too.

Just about the only way that I'd liek to see Hampton back. Anything else and get rid of him.

McCarroll21
09-09-2008, 11:51 PM
I'm down with that. Maybe slap on a few more bonuses for Wins, ERA, and stuff like that.
You can't base incentives on performances like that, only things like games started, games finished and innings pitched. You can do things like top X in Cy Young voting, and you might get away with doing top X in ERA and stats like that.

BF91
09-10-2008, 08:10 AM
You can't base incentives on performances like that, only things like games started, games finished and innings pitched. You can do things like top X in Cy Young voting, and you might get away with doing top X in ERA and stats like that.

Oh, sorry I didn't realize that. :o

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