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McCarroll21
08-24-2008, 07:25 PM
Has Tommy reached the end?
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com

http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/photoplog/images/1/medium/1_glavine.jpgA little more than a year ago, I kicked off our off-season coverage by saying the Braves should bring back Tom Glavine (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7069). It doesn't take a smart person to tell me that that didn't work out as anyone would have hoped.

Was adding a 42 year old pitcher to a pitching staff already anchored by a 40 year old starter a risk? You bet it was and the Braves have the 2008 season to prove it wasn't a wise one to make. However, the Braves magnified the risk by neglecting the rotation after adding Glavine to the staff.

Now, as the 2008 season is coming to a close, the Braves have another decision to make on Glavine. Will he pitch for the team in 2009? Personally, I'm here to learn from my mistake of bringing him back in the first place and can only hope the Braves front office will do the same.

Glavine was brought back to give the Braves a solid piece in the middle of their rotation and to give him a chance to retire as an Atlanta Brave. Glavine didn't live up to his end of the bargain for the first part of the equation, but still has a chance to make good on the second. If Glavine hopes to pitch again next season, to me, he forfeits the right to retire as a Brave because he shouldn't be brought back for the 2009 season.

Glavine returned to the team and gave the Braves two good starts to open the season, while taking a no decision in each of them. His first start was the Braves home opener, he pitched five innings, allowing just one earned run. He followed that start with 6.1 scoreless innings in Colorado, only to get outlasted by Aaron Cook on his way to another no decision. It was his third start where things began to unravel for Glavine as he faced four Nationals without recording an out before having to leave the game due to an injury. The injury landed Glavine on the disabled list for the first time in his career.

After returning from the disabled list, Glavine had a 2-2 record with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts with the Braves before heading to the disabled list for the second time in his lenghty career. He didn't bounce back from the second stint as quickly, not returning until just over two months later. While it may have taken longer for him to come back but this time he was only able to hang around for four more innings before heading back to the disabled list and undergoing season ending surgery.

Prior to coming back from his second stay on the disabled list, Glavine admitted that he would be auditioning himself for the 2009 season (http://www.ajc.com/services/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/08/13/braves_glavine_start.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=21) with his play through the end of the year, saying that the time from his August 14 start to the end of the year would be important.

Glavine's six weeks to finish the year lasted just four innings in which he gave up seven runs. He walked four batters and allowed two homers in the four innings of work. If those four innings are an open audition, I think it's time to skip over his name in the callbacks for the final cut.

The feel good story about bringing Glavine back to give him a chance to retire as a Brave needs to end now. Glavine received $11 million for the 2008 season from two teams ($3 million buyout from the Mets, $8 million contract from the Braves). Needless to say, his performance for 2008 didn't live up to the billing and he hasn't left anyone thinking that bringing him back would be a good option.

As I stated earlier, if I'm making the calls, if Glavine wants to pitch again in 2009, he's going to have to do it for another team. He has been given his chance to retire as a Brave, now it's up to him to take it.

What does everyone else think about Glavine's career? Would you bring him back to the Braves in 2009 if you were calling the punches? Do you think he comes back next year? If he does come back next year, will it be with the Braves or another team?

HTF
08-24-2008, 07:37 PM
Great article Mac.
I've read that Tommy will only come back to pitch for the Braves. With that being said I personally think he has given all he can to baseball and is done. But I don't think the Braves have the "courage" (for lack of a clean word) to tell one of their best players ever that they don't want him anymore.

HTF
08-24-2008, 08:58 PM
Come on guys, McCarroll worked hard on this article let's see some opinions.

McCarroll21
08-24-2008, 09:05 PM
Come on guys, McCarroll worked hard on this article let's see some opinions.
I think it's been exhausted in other areas of the site. I just want to start writing again.

MTDrunk
08-24-2008, 09:13 PM
When the Braves signed Tommy, I was one of the few Braves fans I knew who was excited. I didn't expect him to win twenty games but I thought he would be a strong number three guy as well as being a good presence in the dugout. I don't like to admit being wrong but this time I was.

I'm still a fan of his but I hope this was his last season. I would like to see him retire as a Brave but not if that means bringing him back next year.

GrandMasterB
08-24-2008, 11:09 PM
The only way I would even consider bringing him back at this point -- and this goes for Hampton, too -- is if he accepted an incentive-laden contract with a low base salary. Even then, he wouldn't be guaranteed a spot in the rotation, as I would make sure to have at least five other capable starters. However, it's probably best if he just retired and stuck around as an instructor of some sorts. He could be very beneficial in that role for our young pitchers, especially Reyes.

MSU Bulldog
08-24-2008, 11:13 PM
I personally would like to see the youngsters take their lumps. However, it would be nice if they would sign a good SP to take some of the pressure of them. Nothing against Glavine, it's just way past time to go in another direction.

ahobbie
08-25-2008, 12:00 PM
It is definitely time to move on and get some of our youngs guys the experience they need. Glavine is a classy player and he should just call it quits on a great career. If the FO feels it necessary to keep Tom aroundm, than put him in the dugout, but they should move past having him in the rotation.

nittanylionfan3
08-25-2008, 12:04 PM
Yeah, I think that Glavine is done. He just hasn't had what it takes this year. I wanted to see him do well, but it just didn't happen. Great career Tommy, but its over.

JCStone7
08-25-2008, 12:06 PM
I'd be on board to bring him back now as opposed to my feelings before the Huddy injury I would've said no. With Hudson going down for most of next year and 2009 more likely a rebuilding mode I wouldn't be opposed to him coming back to an incentive laden deal based on IP at the total max being about 2-3 million.

vnodnarb
08-25-2008, 12:06 PM
I think the real question is how many young guys deserve a spot/would benefit from a spot in the rotation to start 2009? Obviously Jair does and Campillo probably does. Does Morton, Reyes, or Hanson? How many spots do we need to fill around these guys with cheap starters like Glavine, Hampton, Byrd?

Beaneater69
08-30-2008, 12:27 PM
Good article... I agree completely. Not only does Tommy need to call it quits now and retire as a Brave, he needs to call it quits in order to avoid going out on a completely sour note. His body is telling him all he needs to know. In my opinion, he also lost a lot of his edge when the outside corner tightened up on him. He's never had great velocity, but his pitches seem to float in there now more than ever, and when they have to cover too much of the dish, they get crushed. I just don't think hitters get the jitters when he's in there anymore. Great career. End it the right way, Tom.

vnodnarb
08-30-2008, 02:35 PM
Here's a question....why can't Glavine be as good as Jamie Moyer who is older and wasn't nearly as good in his prime? Is it just health/injuries that will hold him back? My point basically is....if Glavine is completely healthy next season I don't see why he can't pitch as well as he did in 2006 or 2007.

McCarroll21
08-30-2008, 03:00 PM
Moyer doesn't walk as many people as Glavine. When your bread and butter is to have guys hit it on the ground or put it in play in a way that people can catch it, you're bound to have a better time of it if you're not putting guys on for free.

K/9
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/90_1091_P_cseason_full_1_20080829.png

BB/9
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/90_1091_P_cseason_full_2_20080829.png

K/BB
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/90_1091_P_cseason_full_3_20080829.png

BABIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/90_1091_P_cseason_full_7_20080829.png

So, while Moyer isn't a big strikeout guy (like Glavine), he keeps it around 2 strikeouts for every walk. Glavine, on the other hand, puts more guys on and only strikes out one guy for every walk, basically putting himself in more trouble.

While Moyer doesn't throw hard, he still attacks hitters. He just doesn't attack them with a 95 MPH fastball. Glavine has always been a nibbler. With age, Glavine has lost some on his fastball and when he nibbles and gets behind in the count and gets hit hard because of it.

It's just that Moyer has better control so when he does get hit, it doesn't do as much damage.

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="5" width="350" align="center">Jamie Moyer</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Season</td><td align="center">Balls</td><td align="center">Strikes</td><td align="center">Pitches</td><td align="center">Strike %</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2006</td><td align="center">1221</td><td align="center">2052</td><td align="center">3273</td><td align="center">62.69%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2007</td><td align="center">1208</td><td align="center">1940</td><td align="center">3148</td><td align="center">61.63%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2008</td><td align="center">1009</td><td align="center">1592</td><td align="center">2601</td><td align="center">61.21%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Totals</td><td align="center">3438</td><td align="center">5584</td><td align="center">9022</td><td align="center">61.89%</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="5" width="350" align="center">Tom Glavine</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Season</td><td align="center">Balls</td><td align="center">Strikes</td><td align="center">Pitches</td><td align="center">Strike %</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2006</td><td align="center">1282</td><td align="center">1984</td><td align="center">3266</td><td align="center">60.75%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2007</td><td align="center">1402</td><td align="center">1939</td><td align="center">3341</td><td align="center">58.04%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">2008</td><td align="center">473</td><td align="center">621</td><td align="center">1094</td><td align="center">56.76%</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Totals</td><td align="center">3157</td><td align="center">4544</td><td align="center">7701</td><td align="center">59.01%</td></tr></tbody></table>

See, it's already starting to trend downward for Glavine and will likely only continue in that direction given his age. The percentage of strikes are decreasing, the amount of walks are increasing and the ratio of strikeouts to walks is decreasing. Not a good trend for a 'put it in play' pitcher because now when he gets a single just get through the infield, a runner he put on base via the walk comes around to score. When he doesn't walk the guy, he gets himself in a 3-1 count and the hitter can sit on something and hit him hard.

argh
08-30-2008, 04:51 PM
It's everyone's time sooner or later. The time is now for Glavine.

McCarroll21
08-30-2008, 07:58 PM
It's everyone's time sooner or later. The time is now for Glavine.
Wow. An argh sighting!

flintrock23
09-30-2008, 12:14 PM
I'm not sure if I was just a big Leo fan, but I'd like to see Tommy take over for Roger McDowell and still see him in that number 47, but as the pitching coach.

He's still very smart and can help the younger guys like Jo-Jo, who Bobby said they were never going to give up on.

Either way, Tommy had a great career and we'll miss him but he should hang them up, I'm sad to say.

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