McCarroll21
06-09-2008, 08:18 AM
Chipper Watch: Target: .400
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/photoplog/images/1/medium/1_chipper.jpgWith 400 career homers now in his rear view mirror, Chipper Jones is now setting his sights on another 400, a .400 batting average over the course of a full major league baseball season.
Can it be done again? No one has done it since Ted Williams hit .406 back in 1941. Since then, only five major leaguers have reached 500 plate appearances in a season and finished with a batting average higher than .375.
Is Chipper the man to do the unthinkable and put .400 back in the minds of baseball fans?
Tony Gwynn always claimed the reason he didn't hit .400 in his career was that he didn't walk enough. Currently, 14.6% of Chipper's plate appearances end with him taking a stroll down to first base via the walk, a number that has been increasing since the beginning of May. Since May 2, Chipper has been walked 18.9% of the time he comes to the plate and over 20% of the time since May 16.
The walk doesn't help a player's batting average, so why is it so significant in Chipper's race to .400? Well, the short, and easy, answer is that a player is going to get out more often than they get a hit. In Chipper's case, even to hit .400, he would be getting out six times for every four times he gets a hit. With his ability to draw a walk, Chipper can record the plate appearance needed to qualify for a batting title while leaving his batting average untouched, or taking out the chance to go hitless during that at-bat and take a few points off his batting average.
The first step for Chipper is to reach 502 plate appearances, the minimum amount a player can have to qualify for a batting title, with .400 still in his grasp. At Chipper's current pace of 4.06 plate appearances per team game (260 in 64 games), Chipper would reach 502 plate appearances in the Braves 124th game this season. To still be hitting .400 at that time, Chipper would need to bat .380 (78-for-205) over the Braves next 60 games.
So, to get to the point that Chipper could sit every game for the rest of the year and finish the season batting .400, he could survive a 40 point drop off his current pace. Of course, with 38 games still left on the schedule, if he maintains his current plate appearances per team game rate, it's very unlikely Chipper would sit the rest of the season.
Knowing he'd still have a big bulk of the season left to play through, let's look at his current pace and play out the possible scenarios for Chipper.
Chipper is currently on pace to reach 658 plate appearances this season, with 554 official at-bats. To bat .400 over 554 at-bats, Chipper would need, at minimum, 222 hits on the season (.4007). For Chipper, that comes out to batting .388 (130-for-335) over the remainder of the season. To finish the season batting his current .420, Chipper would need 233 hits on the season (.4206), or finishing the season 141-for-335.
Obviously, throughout the year, if Chipper is still chasing .400, he is bound to get intentionally walked more often, meaning one less at-bat, and subsequent chance of getting out, on his quest for .400.
So, can he do it? Can Chipper bat .388 over the Braves next 98 games? If Chipper can't, will the milestone ever be reached again?
By: Josh McCarroll (http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/member.php?u=1) | Braves-Nation.com
http://www.braves-nation.com/forums/photoplog/images/1/medium/1_chipper.jpgWith 400 career homers now in his rear view mirror, Chipper Jones is now setting his sights on another 400, a .400 batting average over the course of a full major league baseball season.
Can it be done again? No one has done it since Ted Williams hit .406 back in 1941. Since then, only five major leaguers have reached 500 plate appearances in a season and finished with a batting average higher than .375.
Is Chipper the man to do the unthinkable and put .400 back in the minds of baseball fans?
Tony Gwynn always claimed the reason he didn't hit .400 in his career was that he didn't walk enough. Currently, 14.6% of Chipper's plate appearances end with him taking a stroll down to first base via the walk, a number that has been increasing since the beginning of May. Since May 2, Chipper has been walked 18.9% of the time he comes to the plate and over 20% of the time since May 16.
The walk doesn't help a player's batting average, so why is it so significant in Chipper's race to .400? Well, the short, and easy, answer is that a player is going to get out more often than they get a hit. In Chipper's case, even to hit .400, he would be getting out six times for every four times he gets a hit. With his ability to draw a walk, Chipper can record the plate appearance needed to qualify for a batting title while leaving his batting average untouched, or taking out the chance to go hitless during that at-bat and take a few points off his batting average.
The first step for Chipper is to reach 502 plate appearances, the minimum amount a player can have to qualify for a batting title, with .400 still in his grasp. At Chipper's current pace of 4.06 plate appearances per team game (260 in 64 games), Chipper would reach 502 plate appearances in the Braves 124th game this season. To still be hitting .400 at that time, Chipper would need to bat .380 (78-for-205) over the Braves next 60 games.
So, to get to the point that Chipper could sit every game for the rest of the year and finish the season batting .400, he could survive a 40 point drop off his current pace. Of course, with 38 games still left on the schedule, if he maintains his current plate appearances per team game rate, it's very unlikely Chipper would sit the rest of the season.
Knowing he'd still have a big bulk of the season left to play through, let's look at his current pace and play out the possible scenarios for Chipper.
Chipper is currently on pace to reach 658 plate appearances this season, with 554 official at-bats. To bat .400 over 554 at-bats, Chipper would need, at minimum, 222 hits on the season (.4007). For Chipper, that comes out to batting .388 (130-for-335) over the remainder of the season. To finish the season batting his current .420, Chipper would need 233 hits on the season (.4206), or finishing the season 141-for-335.
Obviously, throughout the year, if Chipper is still chasing .400, he is bound to get intentionally walked more often, meaning one less at-bat, and subsequent chance of getting out, on his quest for .400.
So, can he do it? Can Chipper bat .388 over the Braves next 98 games? If Chipper can't, will the milestone ever be reached again?